Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Thoughts on Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), Alpha Natural ...

Oa, do a search on RIO - on the right side of my b...

2008-07-16T13:07:00.000-04:00

Oa, do a search on RIO - on the right side of my blog is a label cloud, click on CVRD (which was the old name for RIO)

I wrote a piece on new potential acquisitions I think maybe a month or two ago.
Now that Xstrata is off the table there are a few. I pray AA is not one (yuck)

FCX would be an excellent fit.

Q, it is a very difficult marketIt really is only ...

2008-07-16T13:06:00.000-04:00

Q, it is a very difficult market

It really is only working for short term traders and even they are getting smashed since we are seeing wild intraday swings. Literally for many months over the past year, if you have a gain within a few hour you have to take it - as it will disappear within a day.

This is not an investors market. Keep in mind 70% of trading is now done by hedge fund computers. And their programming changes on a dime it appears with the huge herky jerky switches we get.

I don't envy anyone entering the market relatively new. Even the most veteran guys I read are constantly frustrated by total lack of trend or pattern.

We've been fortunate but it has been like swimming upstream as a trout in a tsunami. Not easy work.

From what I've read, RIO is potentially looking at...

2008-07-16T12:50:00.000-04:00

From what I've read, RIO is potentially looking at AA or FCX.

Hey! Mark,RIO may want to buy some companies in th...

2008-07-16T12:42:00.000-04:00

Hey! Mark,

RIO may want to buy some companies in the future, like CLF did today. Any guess what company they may interested in??

Got it thanks, I bought it end of May as it came o...

2008-07-16T12:32:00.000-04:00

Got it thanks, I bought it end of May as it came on to my screens along with MEE and PCX and JRCC, I held right through the painful correction but I sold MEE and PCX and JRCC a couple of days ago luckily I held on to ANR til this am. Long MOS, CHK, POT, HK and PQ rest in cash, can't take the pain of this market.

Q,if you have noticed all the commodities are bein...

2008-07-16T12:26:00.000-04:00

Q,

if you have noticed all the commodities are being taken out and shot today. I really am not that concerned about the day to day moment. I guess if you bought last night hoping for a buyout news it matters. My coal thesis will be the same in 2 years as it is today so the day to day action is irrelevent other than making the fund look better or not for that day.

Michael,
RIO seems to show signs of bottom at 30.50 which it has tested consistently this week. I've been shocked to see it fall so much. Amazing to see the difference in action of RIO vs CLF the past month. The value here for RIO is super compelling.

Too many opportunities, not enough money.

Mark,It appears RIO is setting up for a purchase a...

2008-07-16T12:23:00.000-04:00

Mark,

It appears RIO is setting up for a purchase as well. Do you think its better to wait it out and buy on the buyout news weakness or maybe its priced in already?

Thanks,

Mike

why didnt ANR stay up 22 bucks which it was bid up...

2008-07-16T12:18:00.000-04:00

why didnt ANR stay up 22 bucks which it was bid up this AM, I thought that was the price of the deal in cash and .95/1 CLF in stock?

thanks Ross

Bill,Not really. We had this same rally last Tues...

2008-07-16T11:18:00.000-04:00

Bill,

Not really. We had this same rally last Tuesday

The question is do we get more than 1-2 days, or can they actually run for a week

Wells Fargo was impressive - unfortunately its best of breed

What we want to see is stocks go up on bad news. THat would mark a turn.

WFC news was good news. (relatively)

Mark here's your rally of junk you've called for.....

2008-07-16T11:12:00.000-04:00

Mark here's your rally of junk you've called for...it's just 3 weeks late ;)

oh also did you find/see anything about them start...

2008-07-16T10:44:00.000-04:00

oh also did you find/see anything about them starting CLF under a new ticker & price like they did with the RIG/GSF merger? I can't find anything

reason i ask is because as of right now, it might actually make more sense to buy ANR since you'd be getting 0.95 CLF + 22 cash for each ANR share assuming all they do is add more shares to the existing clf float

this took me by surprise for sure. CLF will be a ...

2008-07-16T10:22:00.000-04:00

this took me by surprise for sure. CLF will be a screaming buy and looks like it will be the next play added to my basket as i can essentially now get anr and clf rolled into one haha perfect.

agree with your thesis that the steel companies would actually be buying these guys (and they still might). steel co's need to get vertically integrated to not get *too* screwed by input costs. i think it starts to happen for sure with all the cash they've been raking in from rising steel prices