tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post7725802649114238064..comments2008-01-21T17:24:15.392-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-10177293175822062162008-01-21T17:24:00.000-05:002008-01-21T17:24:00.000-05:00Hi, I do plan to lighten up on the next bounce. I do hope it lasts more than 3 hours like the "bounces" that have occurred in the past 3 weeks. We are overdue. But I have been saying H1 2008 will be rough - it just played out much quicker than I anticipated. So for that I was positioned poorly and take full credit for that screw up.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-68232480183841550832008-01-21T16:53:00.000-05:002008-01-21T16:53:00.000-05:00i am 100% agree with you. Your fundemental analysis is dead on. But if we want to make money and play on the long side, we need to look for support and market environment that support long side. FWLT is a 10 bil company, it still have room to grow. But the chart tell me it will go down to 100, and stay there for a couple months, it was 84 in august, nothing wrong with it go down to 100. For this environment, if it can build out a base similar to early 06, then it will go to 200 on the next leg up. But to layer in at 140, 120 now is not a good trade. It just too much risk at this point on the down side. I personally think any bounce will be short and not more then 10%, we won't get the kind of august bounce, to protect capital, your fund should be at 30% cash, 20% short. that way you probably break even in the next 3 months.hieunguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12450038505274285042noreply@blogger.com