tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post7399820662893420120..comments2008-10-02T12:05:17.876-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-32389876970128142072008-10-02T12:05:00.000-04:002008-10-02T12:05:00.000-04:00buying opportunity? Prob could recover at least 1/2 this w/in few days?nomar5better2http://openid.aol.com/nomar5better2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-56257322831409834432008-10-02T10:51:00.000-04:002008-10-02T10:51:00.000-04:00-30% Yipes<BR/><BR/>When u asked who was with you to ride it out I had thought I would of been but my trailing stop kicked in.nomar5better2http://openid.aol.com/nomar5better2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-51377541654053927812008-10-01T22:09:00.000-04:002008-10-01T22:09:00.000-04:00Nice SeekingAlpha article here by 'Market Folly'.... Basically he says about POT, that which you are saying about MOS... No logic to the sell-off... But he does explain why it is a good bet when the hedgies finish their 'Bear-back ride'....<BR/><BR/>http://seekingalpha.com/article/96873-potash-corp-poised-to-soar-once-hedge-fund-worries-subside#comment-271074<BR/><BR/>jeganjeganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05850061548373752817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-59620824269613407582008-10-01T21:05:00.000-04:002008-10-01T21:05:00.000-04:00When did you dump your personal position in MOS?fortune8http://www.blogger.com/profile/12397351520040152701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-86049426996003976122008-10-01T19:26:00.000-04:002008-10-01T19:26:00.000-04:00Thanks for the comments; I do agree with you that ability to collect is an issue. You can't squeeze blood from a rock. The other issue is they go to debt to raise money to buy portfolios. So there are some risks - if it drops below $40 or so I'll take the loss and go.<BR/><BR/>re: bad addition<BR/><BR/>are there any good additions anymore?TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91300276724323755362008-10-01T19:03:00.000-04:002008-10-01T19:03:00.000-04:00Re: PRAA<BR/><BR/>I'm not at all saying this is a bad addition. The chart looks nice and perception is everything and the stock is not expensive. Just be aware of the fact that the beginning of a recession is not as optimal as the end for a company like PRAA.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-17629599965263079592008-10-01T18:26:00.000-04:002008-10-01T18:26:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>I know this bites for anyone long these names. The assumption all along that they would beat earnings is a dangerous one. I commiserate with you and myself here. <BR/><BR/>I was worried about this with MOS before the call. Lower grain prices hit nitrogen and phosphate demand among farmers much more than potash demand. Also potash supply remains way below demand. I will still take a hit here but I am more than 2:1 POT: MOS for this reason among others.<BR/><BR/>I had been kicking myself for not being even more weighted towards POT or AGU. They will all be sold together anyway though so it doesn't matter. Well, maybe a little. <BR/><BR/>In a market like this I could see MOS move to its 50 weekly average around 40 if things get out of control. This is about capital and being on the right side not about PE ratios. I will go short if necessary on a bounce up.<BR/><BR/>Regarding PRAA:<BR/>I have owned this name on and off since 2006. I can tell you that from an earnings perspective this company will do best when the economy starts to recover, not at this stage. The reason is that while debt becomes cheaper to buy it also becomes harder to collect until people have money once again. However, their bankruptcy collection business (which is pre-determined and does not depend on them to twist somebody's arm) may do well even now.<BR/><BR/>This is a very tough market. I wonder if the smart bankers knew that Phosphate demand would soften with the softer grain prices (which they also created). This is another reason why it is never a good idea to fight the charts in my opinion. <BR/><BR/>Trosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-73617857088029421012008-10-01T18:25:00.000-04:002008-10-01T18:25:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>Here are some facts to consider. I know of large cooperatives in WI that have booked and paid for all of their 2009 potash needs. One of the COO's I know said the fear is intense at their co-op. He said they are sitting on all their nutrient requirments because their suppliers were scarying the hell out of them earlier this summer. He said the fert rep would come in and tell them that India, China, everyone is screaming for product and we don't know if we can supply it. So, like many others, they bought everything at the peak and will be cutting prices along with the competition in an effort to unload. This to me is a perfect storm for a major dump in Ag names. I fear that the selling is just begining.nxgstockhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05833841974191631472noreply@blogger.com