Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Trina Solar (TSL) Confirms Full Year Guidance with...

If you are asking me if I still like PBR - yes. I...

2008-10-15T13:28:00.000-04:00

If you are asking me if I still like PBR - yes. If you are asking me would I invest in it in this environment - no. There are no investments - everything is a trade nowadays. PBR was up 30% the other day, now it is down 20%. There is no investing going on there.

Speaking of oil, it's been awhile since you commen...

2008-10-15T12:28:00.000-04:00

Speaking of oil, it's been awhile since you commented on Petrobras (PBR). With all of the short term scares surrounding oil, are you still considering an investment in this behemoth?

solar and oil are totally unrelated. power prices...

2008-10-15T11:57:00.000-04:00

solar and oil are totally unrelated. power prices are set on a marginal dispatch usually natgas. So in *theory* and I use that loosely, if oil goes down, natgas goes down, reduces the cost of marginal dispatch, reduces power prices, reduces revenue from solar. But, man, thats alot of degrees of seperation. And I dont buy the oil/natgas parity in the short term. (ie < 5 years) It only works in new york city. and in the winter, where they still using heating oil.

But I do worry about the amount of subsidies solar companies need, to be competitive. Longer term, once technology and production costs decline, I think solar is the one true "green" technology.

I think the argument that can be made for solar be...

2008-10-15T11:46:00.000-04:00

I think the argument that can be made for solar being completely opposite than coal and gas is simply the increased pressure to be progressive with green energy. So fossil fuels could be down with solar up. Many say we will have to go for the cheapest energy source out there and forget about green house gases while in a recession, so who knows WHEN, not if, solar will become popular again... funny how the environmental long term picture is unpopular during a war, during a boom and of course during a downturn... and by the time the natural catastrophies are killing us, the country will be bankrupt.

I just hate that arguement for multiple reasons#1 ...

2008-10-15T11:20:00.000-04:00

I just hate that arguement for multiple reasons

#1 oil does not compete with solar. Solar does not go into your car. It is going back to 2nd grade thesis. If you want to make a valid arguement you need to talk about eletrical generation which is coal and natural gas. Oil has nothing to do with it

#2 if all solar came online in 2009 as planned, it would be something like 0.3% of all energy generation needs. So as "oil" falls that means the 0.3% goes away?

#3 It is very American thinking. What happened in the 1970s during the oil shock? "Backwards" countries like Brazil said never again - they put in 20-25 year plan for ethanol. Netherlands did the same. Others in Europe did the same with geothermal and the like. It is a very American way of thinking that the next 6-24 months of price will cause the entire world to change their plans. Only in America do we have short sightedness and lack of focus. In other countries, they do not want to be hostage to energy prices that in 3 years can be back to where they were this summer.

I know it is hard to believe but other countries actually are not as "progressive" as the US who can't look past 3 months.

That said, your arguement is a common one and since no one even makes a distinction between energy that goes into your car or energy that goes to power your home, and everyone thinks every country thinks like America - I see why the constant panic.

and what will the numbers be for 09 & 10 with oil ...

2008-10-15T10:58:00.000-04:00

and what will the numbers be for 09 & 10 with oil plummenting. The fear is that sales will drop as oil drops. Agree that global growth will likely have another 10 yrs in it but until this all settles down nobody is willing to pay up short term.

where's the private equity to do a couple LBO's an...

2008-10-15T10:53:00.000-04:00

where's the private equity to do a couple LBO's and get the fundamentals back?

oh yeah.. broke.

Until credit returns, and firms can start to take these over, you just cant rely on valuation.

Most of my no brainers are down 50% in the past 4 ...

2008-10-15T10:36:00.000-04:00

Most of my no brainers are down 50% in the past 4 months :) I'm the wrong person to ask... hah

Can u create a list of the absolute no-brainers ba...

2008-10-15T10:25:00.000-04:00

Can u create a list of the absolute no-brainers based on 'fundamentals'? I know we see a lot of Coal companies...