Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Double Bottom Forming? Or Just a Pit Stop on the ...

Thanks JayYou are a bit more optimistic than me.

2008-06-24T09:48:00.000-04:00

Thanks Jay

You are a bit more optimistic than me.

As of today, 6/23/08, I believe the first down leg...

2008-06-23T23:07:00.000-04:00

As of today, 6/23/08, I believe the first down leg in SPX is over. For these reasons:

1. Financials, XLF, is quite oversold and is now exhibiting positive divergence in daily MACD.

2. Meanwhile, SPX has not collapsed and is now showing a clear '5 wave down' pattern showing that we may soon have '3 waves up' correction before resuming the bigger down trend.

3. Small stocks, IWM, has been outperforming SPX. In fact, IWM has corrected in 3 waves down so far, indicating a possibility that it may yet make another higher high above 6/5 top ( or a double top).

4. We are near the seasonally strong July 4th week.

I am now expecting a couple of weeks' bounce for the stock market, perhaps into 7/7 time frame. At that point, I may try to buy TWM again.

Meanwhile over the next couple of weeks, I am expecting energy sectors to rally even higher.

Just my 2 cents' worth as a technician.....

JayIt has been interesting to see small caps outpe...

2008-06-20T09:39:00.000-04:00

Jay

It has been interesting to see small caps outperform the large of late. It makes little sense since large caps are more tied to world markets and small caps to the US. Unless we see the market building a thesis that the world markets are set to weaken and hence US multinationals won't have the benefits they had in the past. But I've noticed the trend since I've held TWM since early in the fund on basis of multinationals outperforming anything tied to the US consumer.

Agree, the logical move is to continue downward - the bounces have been quite pathetic (i.e. yesterday)

hey Mark - this made Seaking Alpha this morning - ...

2008-06-20T09:18:00.000-04:00

hey Mark - this made Seaking Alpha this morning - you once commented that because of time demands you miss reading SA; now you are writing [a portion of] it - congrats

I am holding TWM and it has been quite frustratin...

2008-06-19T20:29:00.000-04:00

I am holding TWM and it has been quite frustrating. There are lots of negative news out there but the market has been hanging onto its gain quite well - esp. IWM. IWM has been outperforming larger cap SPY. This may be an intermediate term bullish sign. Furthermore for bulls, BKX has formed a nice hammer today and could be bottoming here.

But short term, bears still have the benefit of doubt. Short term, the downtrend started on 5/21 is still in effect - i.e. lower highs and lower lows.

Here's my take.VIX just broke the short-term downt...

2008-06-19T13:57:00.000-04:00

Here's my take.

VIX just broke the short-term downtrend around 21, and is resuming the intermediate-term uptrend.

Market volume has been light, and breadth has been bearish. So my gut says we'll test 1320 and break it, since there's been lack of conviction and buyers.