Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)...

I used MOS on a trailing earnings basis. I think ...

2008-04-21T15:11:00.000-04:00

I used MOS on a trailing earnings basis. I think that came out to 42 bucks a share. I would guess fair value would be a slight discount to that, so high 30's. But yeah.. no telling what kind of hype is going to go into it.

there are no compsMOS trades at discount to POT du...

2008-04-21T14:45:00.000-04:00

there are no comps

MOS trades at discount to POT due to less expansion capability

AGU trades at discount to MOS due to retail arm

IPI should trade at discount to MOS due to less expansion capability but market hysterics will probably push it to a value over POT in the near term due to small float, lockup, hysteria, and the like.

I think that was the great thing about fertilizer....

2008-04-21T13:55:00.000-04:00

I think that was the great thing about fertilizer. As long as the crop required it, it was a good way to play the increase in grain prices, regardless of the type. JJA doesnt have any rice. Do you know of any way to get exposure there? I'm still bullish on DBA - the chart looks funny.. technicals really dont work too well on it, but I think the recent subsidies (aka the export restrictions, etc being done all around the world) that is just going to spike the prices higher in the next few months.

IPI is suppose to do 1.1M or so of potash (from the potashcorp presentation on their site). They also have an estimate of their 'excess capacity' - essentially nil. So I suspect they trade at a discount to guys like mos and pot. The growth will probably be from increased prices like everyone else. In that case, who do you think is the best comp?

AGA +7% now.Interesting to see the commodities dow...

2008-04-21T13:15:00.000-04:00

AGA +7% now.

Interesting to see the commodities down but the related stocks ignoring it.

JJA is a more broad all in 1 commodity ETF, down sharply yet the stocks related continue to levitate :)

Mark, I dont think its really the type of trading ...

2008-04-21T11:42:00.000-04:00

Mark, I dont think its really the type of trading in the ETF/ETN's. It's more that the strength has moved between corn, wheat, and now rice, which isn't in the DBA etf.