tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post7093870135996266498..comments2008-01-19T14:18:09.353-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-62366828130031530792008-01-19T14:18:00.000-05:002008-01-19T14:18:00.000-05:00I don't know. Keep in mind though who is doing the financial innovation. Former "colonizing" countries - UK and US. Who is benefiting? None of those type of companies - India, China, Mid East. Reverse Colonization. The one thing we have going for us (the world system) is money is flooding into those countries - and it will come back to the weak countries in the form of buying off our assets. That will provide a floor. <BR/><BR/>Remember, he who owns the money rules the roost. So when our new owners decide they are interested in our assets - that will "allow the pattern to complete". If I were them, I'd be very patient and give it a few years and let assets deflate. The guys buying now I think are early. "Smart money" and all. But again, when you take in billions each day through petro dollars and trade surplus you can throw good money after bad... because each day you get more billions. As we send out more billions through the back door.<BR/><BR/>Reverse Colonization baby.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-83744387385902295162008-01-19T13:31:00.000-05:002008-01-19T13:31:00.000-05:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>This post made me look at a 10 yr monthly chart of the S&P ($spx) just to see the long long long term health of the market is. Now I know you are familiar with chart patters. It looks awfully like a double top. The symmetry of the correction is uncanny. <BR/><BR/>You should go see it for yourself. I like to use candlesticks on stockcharts.com. <BR/><BR/>The really scary part is we aren't even anywhere near the break down point. <BR/><BR/>What possible event do you see that would allow this pattern to complete? Perhaps a total collapse of the entire global financial system?? I feel like buying some gold bars right now.T-Raderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16892169651369153159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-3756172400938667672008-01-17T10:22:00.000-05:002008-01-17T10:22:00.000-05:00The bull case of PE 14 is just that. Bull. I'd say in 7 out of 10 sectors, future earnings estimates ae just plain wrong. Kool Aid. Just like retailers are not trading at 5x forward earnings - earnings need to be slashed in many places (still). We seem to be pricing that in now.<BR/><BR/>Yes the Fed money needs to go somewhere - we will have a bubble somewhere again. I am guessing commodities but I am sure some of it will leak back to equity markets - perhaps 2nd half 2008.<BR/><BR/>But for now, I am very concerned about the market (first half 2008)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-9845788992573046702008-01-16T15:26:00.000-05:002008-01-16T15:26:00.000-05:00Mark, I was looking at the same thing this past week. Since 2003, the 50 EMA has never crossed below the 200EMA on SP500 until recently and I didn't like the way it looks on the chart. But the bull case is, the market is trading at 14 PE. Now is this a value trap or what I don't know as you say that the earnings estimates for 2008 may be coming down. Furthermore, the emerging markets are not going to slow down that quickly and abruptly I guess. Also, since Fed is printing money, that money has to go somewhere right? .. <BR/><BR/>These things are what makes me optimistic as long as we do not break and close below 1363(low of Feb 07) on SP500.Pankajhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13478816568647309907noreply@blogger.com