tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post701447427911005282..comments2008-09-15T12:02:28.457-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-41092306744328878802008-09-15T12:02:00.000-04:002008-09-15T12:02:00.000-04:00hrs, I bought gas Thursday night knowing they'd jack it up. Why they increase gas before the storm even hits is something only blind regulators should ask - but they don't care. We went from $3.79 to $4.29 overnight here.<BR/><BR/>Shawn, yes lurch is the correct word. There is a lot of ironies. Lehman on behalf of its biggest clients (hedge funds) was cheering on the removal of the no uptick rule. Look what took them down - I tell you these financial entities helped create Frankensteins and their creations came back to destroy them. Irony.<BR/><BR/>Rey,<BR/>Expect the same for the next 18 months or so. Every Friday night we'll have a good chance. To tell you how pathetic it is, IndyMac Bank which I believe was top 3 biggest failures was not even on the FDIC "troubled bank" list a quarter before it went under. washington mutual which is probably going to be taken over by JPMorgan since it is in so much trouble is not on the FDIC troubled bank list. This tells me the troubled bank list is near useless.<BR/><BR/>I think the dollar to commodity link is overblown. Commodities were run up by levered hedge funds finding something to work in a very tough market of November 07-June 08. That is clear now. There is a good thesis behind these names, but levered hedgies take a good thesis and take it to the extreme. Now they are unwinding or being forced to be.<BR/><BR/>The dollar is now barely down during one of the most destabilizing periods in US financial history. Why? It makes no sense? My gut is hedge funds are piling in. And that's all that matters in these markets. Where they go to play, despite any factual evidence or fundamentals, is where the prices move.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-86628834099422343802008-09-15T01:37:00.000-04:002008-09-15T01:37:00.000-04:00Your comment about it's Friday night in a America so there is a 50% chance a bank will go under this weekend...It's sad, but true......Dollar is weakening as a result of Lehman's bankruptcy. Do you think this will lead to higher commodity prices? It seemed during the commodity sell off, that the dollar was getting strong every day. Perhaps there will be a reversal and the short financials/dollar and long commodities will be the trade again. Which would be fine with me since I'm still long coal stocks like BTU, PCX, and ANR.Rey0076http://www.blogger.com/profile/12704630429154409646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-39571990034908275992008-09-13T23:46:00.000-04:002008-09-13T23:46:00.000-04:00thanks for all your hard work on the site!! And, I am laughing my ass off right now...<BR/><BR/>I am just a guy "moonlighting" as a swing-trader (it's too derogatory to call myself a day-trader... those guys go broke).<BR/><BR/>Anyway, you are absolutely right. <BR/><BR/>The one thing to add - is that "these days" every small-time, 6-figure-pot, mouse-clicker (like me) is piling into trades and gun-jumping every obvious momemtum and resistant level trade (as you outline in this post). <BR/><BR/>This is causing crazy, unsustainably steep drops, rather than old-fashion (circa 10 years ago) trends to "reasonable" equilibrium points. <BR/><BR/>Whiplash all-around - not to mention the "well-intentioned" disruption that we have the feds and treasuries regulary introducing into the system. Boy, are they activist government types. <BR/><BR/>Equity markets (and probably most others) just don't trend anymore, but rather lurch... <BR/><BR/>The mouse clickers and super-rich hedge *fun* guys (now getting redeemed to death) must be causing havoc for Ben and Paulson's behavioral finance algorithms. <BR/><BR/>Anyway, thanks for you blog and the good laugh on a Sat night as I ponder my fantasy football line-up and short cover target zones and stop short-cover points.<BR/><BR/>ShawnShawnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04074981985916762421noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-36706109564648597862008-09-12T19:13:00.000-04:002008-09-12T19:13:00.000-04:00You are so right ... I've been running various scans and it just boils down to commodities one day and financials two days later. Doesn't matter what I scan for... 'Stocks over a moving average, moving average crossovers, stochastics above 20..etc.. <BR/><BR/>Anyway, it sure is nice (in a contrary fashion) to see Texans paying more for gas than Californians ... When I was working down there, there was about a 50 cent a gallon differential.. Right now, up in the expensive foothills, we are paying $3.89 ... <BR/><BR/>jeganjeganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05850061548373752817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-36154763468567765502008-09-12T16:14:00.000-04:002008-09-12T16:14:00.000-04:00And the impact on the public is ...<BR/>retail gas hit $4.60 in Knoxville/Oak Ridge, Tennessee this afternoon. About 10 percent of stations were out of fuel; those that had fuel had lines at each operating pump.<BR/><BR/>Knoxville is a terminus of the Colonial Pipeline, the corporate headquarters for Pilot Oil [think truck stops], and a transport hub for motor carriers.<BR/><BR/>This is the commodity crisis hitting main street.<BR/><BR/>Oh well, pass the koolaid, we'll just stay home, drink beer, and watch football.hrs0944http://www.blogger.com/profile/09986838112144909482noreply@blogger.com