tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post6949033322517346733..comments2008-07-10T20:38:48.206-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-4488764371177397772008-07-10T20:38:00.000-04:002008-07-10T20:38:00.000-04:00Hi mimi,<BR/><BR/>I don't really wish to give opinions like that because then it can be construed as advice which than can be construed by a lawyer as a reason to sue me for giving investing advice :)<BR/><BR/>You can see in my holdings on the right side of the blog which I usually update twice a week where I have things placed and from that should generate a short term view on my near term opinion.<BR/><BR/>Please note - I am wrong around 49.9% of the time ;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-44827970482703287042008-07-10T20:31:00.000-04:002008-07-10T20:31:00.000-04:00Tradermark- thanks for the reply. I am holding SRS...not sure if I should hold on a bit longer or sell as soon as I break even...any opinions?MiMihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00612272222362424442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-6124000972521592092008-07-10T17:00:00.000-04:002008-07-10T17:00:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/>Great article! In short, we're f*cked!! ;) I thought the "twin towers of equity destruction" were NYX and LCC? lol.<BR/><BR/>I've been watching LEH option activity the past few days and there was much put buying earlier in the week. I'm not sure they're going successfully make a run on LEH like they did BSC, though. I'm watching with a bag of popcorn on the sidelines.<BR/><BR/>BDBluedoghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13620622716492473197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91878058957748120162008-07-10T16:18:00.000-04:002008-07-10T16:18:00.000-04:00As far as a bottom my concern is this: this is a bear market and it has generally taken a deeper oversold level in a bear market than we currently have for the bottom to be put so it would not surprise me to see lower levels. I don't mean to vascillate on my "call" and I have not changed anything with regards to my long US equity exposure since friday. It is a matter of expectations; yes, I would like to bottom tick the thing, but that is impossible.<BR/><BR/>Sentiment has gotten very bearish and historically (over the past 20 years) the sweet spot for buying has been about 2 weeks after the signal. We are in that sweet spot now. The times that this has been wrong is 1998, bear market 2000- 2002, and January, 2008. Lastly, sentiment was a poor tool in the 1970's but that withstanding, there generally was a bounce or consolidation over several weeks before prices went lower. <BR/><BR/>How do I deal with that uncertainty? I don't put all my capital to work at one time and I don't put it all into one basket or idea.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-85635069886087889992008-07-10T16:16:00.000-04:002008-07-10T16:16:00.000-04:00yes<BR/>yes<BR/>yes<BR/>and no. ;)<BR/><BR/>One dream to pursue at a time. No way to do all this with kids or even a spouse. Takes a lot of time just to do readings and research not to mention regurgitating it for mass consumption. But I need to do this to convince people I'm not throwing darts, so it's what I consider the entry fee to get into the business.<BR/><BR/>One day I'll have one of my hamsters write the blog entries while I dictate ;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-53714027280847921442008-07-10T16:06:00.000-04:002008-07-10T16:06:00.000-04:00Website is a ton of work and I don't know how you do it; you must be a very fast typer, don't have children or a spouse, and be very organized.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-24885072756740169682008-07-10T15:24:00.000-04:002008-07-10T15:24:00.000-04:00Ok.. I got burnt today in CRK.. Officially!! :).. But I guess next week the VIX will spike?<BR/><BR/>Cheers.. <BR/>PankajPankajhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13478816568647309907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-83964960566808679842008-07-10T15:16:00.000-04:002008-07-10T15:16:00.000-04:00Guy,<BR/><BR/>I think only a fellow blogger / website creater realizes how much work maintaining a site daily is. I am doing like 5 hours a night of sleep on my best night (weekdays) - then I sleep in for 7 on weekends ;) Demanding audience.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75207594066103418832008-07-10T15:14:00.000-04:002008-07-10T15:14:00.000-04:00Ben,<BR/><BR/>There is no reason equity will remain once the federal government takes it over. Debt holders come first - equity comes last. Ask Bear Stearns equity holders.<BR/><BR/>Guy,<BR/><BR/>I promise to append you to the end of any bottom here - I truly don't think FNM and FRE will go now. I still think they will do a capital raise - put on a charade through the election and then Obama will be left with the big mess. So maybe it will be the Lehman-Guy bottom ;)<BR/><BR/>Yes I was laughing at the earlier comment - I put up 5 posts and I am told I was quiet today. ;) I am trying to keep it to 6 a day to keep it manageable for readers (not overwhelm) and make it manageable for me. But the past week or so has turned very hectic and a lot to talk about. <BR/><BR/>Again I look forward to 2011, where I will just put the same post up every day - Housing recovering, malls packed, the new wind/solar/natural gas initiative from Sect of Energy Boone working wonders, gas back to $3.25, and stocks up 0.6% yet again today. Yawn. Can we have some volatility or bad news once in a while please? <BR/><BR/>hah!TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-31240051116767689902008-07-10T15:10:00.000-04:002008-07-10T15:10:00.000-04:00TM:<BR/><BR/>Thanks for working so hard and diligently to bring these kind of posts to your blog.<BR/><BR/>It's good stuff.<BR/><BR/>Also nice to have a new name for "the bottom" that is somewhere around the next corner.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-74483871847214222242008-07-10T14:18:00.000-04:002008-07-10T14:18:00.000-04:00Great post TM, and so true. If not for the fear of some big calamity, I believe the market would have already put in an IT bottom. The recent oversold levels have just been ridiculous - worse than 2001-02. I still don't think a capitulation bottom is necessary (as so many seem to) but these charts are showing us that the risk is very real. And the risk to our society is very real.<BR/><BR/>The interesting thing with FNM and FRE is that these will be the buys of the decade when they finally bottom out. The fact is they are too big to fail and they make money hand over fist when times are good. I'm reminded of Peter Lynch who made a mint on FNM during previous economic downturns. Of course the present situation is much worse but I would argue that bailout or not, the end result will be the same.Benhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01001242150400508914noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-44080792047909127472008-07-10T13:40:00.000-04:002008-07-10T13:40:00.000-04:00This whole situation is really a power ploy by the government. They *want* to nationalize mortgages the same way they want nationalized healthcare, etc... Private entities have been gone a long time and this is just the tying up of loose ends.<BR/><BR/>/conspiracy hat off ;)Michaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14603027333434481007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-65623629664089766882008-07-10T13:37:00.000-04:002008-07-10T13:37:00.000-04:00MiMi,<BR/><BR/>my post earlier in the day re" Steve & Barrys is more apt to affect commercial real estate<BR/><BR/>Commercial is more tied to the general economy.<BR/><BR/>Residential is a once in a lifetime bubble situation. Basically the tech bubble in stocks spread over a vastly larger surface.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-1339142053203587212008-07-10T13:31:00.000-04:002008-07-10T13:31:00.000-04:00Do you think this impacts the commercial real estate?MiMihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00612272222362424442noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-90117211331139062992008-07-10T12:55:00.000-04:002008-07-10T12:55:00.000-04:00The way we always need an event for a bottom is just one of the many irrational things of the market...It reminds me of your article laughing at the ALCOA "beat"- was the market always so dumb.<BR/><BR/>so then the game plan would be we bottom soon on an event, the get a kool aid rally only to go lower for the next cycle and so on. <BR/><BR/>this rally actually can happen, if oil comes down another 5-10 bux we have a fake reason to "bottom" and rallysoccerbill8http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.com