tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post6673603183411347476..comments2008-07-22T16:15:04.546-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-63467303703994108262008-07-22T16:15:00.000-04:002008-07-22T16:15:00.000-04:00I don't believe XLF is the one going to lead the market...I would not be surprised to see oil, coal, steel and solar all bounce big tomorrow after the hits they are taking today.Oahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10424050777432171060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-71203574840176187142008-07-22T14:12:00.000-04:002008-07-22T14:12:00.000-04:00In a word, no. If you read the blog you will see why.<BR/><BR/>Let me know what has changed in fertilizer for example in the past week. If you let price action in the near term dictate your thesis you won't stay on any trend for more than a few days - which I guess qualifies you to work in a hedge fund nowadays.<BR/><BR/>Let me ask you - I was told a month ago to get into technology because its a safe haven. The price action dictated it. What would of happened to the portfolio if I had made that switch?<BR/><BR/>Now those same people are into the early cycle stocks. Should I follow them just because they can push these up for a few weeks?<BR/><BR/>Should I of followed them into them in January (late) when they did the same thing?<BR/><BR/>How about late March when they did the same thing? Promising 2nd half recovery?<BR/><BR/>Nothing works 52 weeks in a row. If you just follow the trend of the week you need to completely change your portfolio every 2-3 weeks. Go look at the earnings for the 4 sectors you mentioned. And then build a case for me on how they will improve in 3, or 6 months.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-48173710611563292162008-07-22T13:41:00.000-04:002008-07-22T13:41:00.000-04:00Hey Mark,<BR/><BR/>Aren't you worried about getting creamed by the market over the next few months if oil continues to fall (as you suggest it very well could)? I see a scenario where oil continues to correct over to below 110 perhaps, causing money to continue to flow out of energy/commodities and into the "early" cycle plays such as financials/airlines/homebuilders/retailers all rally on the notion that lower oil prices mean economic recovery on the horizon? <BR/><BR/>Seeing as how your portfolio is heavily-positioned in commodity and commodity-related plays, and seeing how Wall St. doesn't discriminate between classes of commodities but rather trades them all as one big basket...aren't you worried about the severe hit your portfolio would take if this scenario played out over the next weeks/months?sdk_IVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06357215762477665878noreply@blogger.com