Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Starting to Buy Stuff I Don't Like

Your scenario assumes just because one thinks (or ...

2008-06-07T12:05:00.000-04:00

Your scenario assumes just because one thinks (or is "very bullish") on a stock it will go up. There are no guarantees. There is nothing I am 99.9% certain on. I take nothing for granted; I can be wrong on each and every position, so when I get profits I harvest some of them.

If you followed a buy and hold strategy in 90%+ of stocks the past year, you'd be down or negative - that's yet another reason. Some stocks I've owned have been down in that time and I've either lost less or in fact made money by trading around a position.

In the end it's all about stock selection, no matter what methodology you use. If you don't have the right stocks its very hard to profit from any strategy. If you do have the right stocks, you can profit from various strategies.

You should see a case example of not why do overload a stock and just "sit in it" even if you are "99.9% sure" from Trina Solar. Anyone who sat and held it for the past year is basically down. And that would ruin a 1 year performance. Speaking of RIG, I held GlobalSantaFe for about 6 months with almost not a penny to show for it. So it really doesn't matter what I think; it matters what the markets think. Being 99.9% sure means nothing.

Mark I notice many of your trades are quite succes...

2008-06-06T22:37:00.000-04:00

Mark I notice many of your trades are quite successful like the DUG pickup 2 weeks ago from 25 to 30 ..thats a nice 20% gain but if you only used say 2% of your cash then it only contributes 0.4% to your overall yearly return. If you put more cash into some of the well thought out "genius" moves then you can really make the $$ when you're right. I mean that was a great move and risky and bold and perfect timing but it only gave you 0.4% for the year, you deserve to be rewarded more for that great a trade.

I know you have held POT, MOS for a long long time in your fund and those are up like 100% since your inception, if those were more heavily weighted they would carry your portfolio to easy 30%+ returns. I noticed you're absolute relentless bullishness on ANR, and I noticed how you had about 1.5% stake I believe. I remember you sold some at 78 and I actually bought then when it was up 6 points that one day. And then there was another 10 points of upside to come.

I was wondering, what is your trading rationale for scaling out of stocks you feel are extremely bullish when they're up. I understand ideally you sell at the top in strength and buy back lower...but if you are like 99.9% certain the stock goes higher in the end, why risk selling and never re-entering when you can just hold and buy the pullbacks.

I was wondering what your thesis against just buying pullbacks is on your "top stocks" (as opposed to selling tops/strength AND buying pullbacks).

I have also created a fund on marketocracy by the way.

http://marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPerformancePage/source=EgMgEaKiEiDkMkMdMaKiAbDc

I'm sure you'll outperform me by 5% or more annually but maybe one day I'll grow my capital to be as large as that of HOBO.

My largest holding is RIG now. I see yours was TSL.

just curious how hard it is to open a commodity a...

2008-06-06T17:57:00.000-04:00

just curious how hard it is to open a commodity account - I see you work in a 'related business' so perhaps you have access through means not open to most of us.

also what are your marketocracy top 10? I would like to hold corn futures myself but stuck with DBA

shoot me an email if you prefer - thanks, I'm off for the day.

**many less involved with the stock market types w...

2008-06-06T17:53:00.000-04:00

**many less involved with the stock market types would freak out in say January and sell out so they'd prefer less volatility.**

Such people typically dont have much to invest to begin with. And what little they have will quickly disappear. Survival of the fittest.

What are your top 10 holdings? Just curiousIn ...

2008-06-06T17:42:00.000-04:00

**What are your top 10 holdings? Just curious**

In real life or marketocracy? They are fairly different coz of mutual fund regulations on Marketocracy.

In real life:

1. Crude Oil Dec'12 contracts
2. Natural Gas Jan'09 contracts
3. Live Cattle Dec'08 contracts
4. Copper Dec'09 contracts
5. Corn Dec'08 contracts
6. BHP
7. OXY
8. MOS
9. ESV
10. BTU

One more thing about volatitily - I am not caterin...

2008-06-06T15:36:00.000-04:00

One more thing about volatitily - I am not catering just to you. I am trying to cast a wide net - many less involved with the stock market types would freak out in say January and sell out so they'd prefer less volatility. I am trying to marry the two, or better put - the least correlation with the indexes.

What are your top 10 holdings? Just curiousI trade...

2008-06-06T15:34:00.000-04:00

What are your top 10 holdings? Just curious

I trade the Ultrashort exposure very heavily each day, I think its about 2/3rd of my "trading %"

We need to get you a mutual fund shax, you are des...

2008-06-06T15:32:00.000-04:00

We need to get you a mutual fund shax, you are destroying me!

Mike, if it closed below 1370 it would be bearish to me. 1325ish looks like the next pit stop.

Is today's action enough of a capitulation to end ...

2008-06-06T15:28:00.000-04:00

Is today's action enough of a capitulation to end the bear market rally? In my opinion, a close below 1370 would be enough to drop the market for the next few weeks.

But then again, I've been wrong quite a few times. Take it with a grain of salt.

**If you look at it from a portfolio management vi...

2008-06-06T15:22:00.000-04:00

**If you look at it from a portfolio management view, it does help to dampen volatility**

The job is to max investment returns. If I wanted low volatility, I would hold US Treasuries.

Not convinced? Here is my fund:
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/ManagerPublicPage/login=andreik

Here is yours:
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/ManagerPublicPage/login=mark73

Me: 6months +15.7% Turnover: 72%
You: 6months +3.1% Turnover: 870%(!!)

I am not smarter or better trader, I just dont buy crap.

What's wrong with being up every week?? hahIf you ...

2008-06-06T15:09:00.000-04:00

What's wrong with being up every week?? hah

If you look at it from a portfolio management view, it does help to dampen volatility - yin and yang. When my main yin falls, at least a few of the yang are rising. When I start buying retailers not named Costco Walmart Big Lots etc than you can yell at me.

Ok, bad EnglishStarting Today to buy stuff I don't...

2008-06-06T15:05:00.000-04:00

Ok, bad English

Starting Today to buy stuff I don't like

Or Adding to stuff I don't like

et al.

I'm actually up on Goldman, and down just a bit on MS.

Down on the housing stocks so far, but they are getting trashed this past 2 weeks. They'll rebound.

**Starting to Buy Stuff I Don't Like Goldman Sachs...

2008-06-06T14:52:00.000-04:00

**
Starting to Buy Stuff I Don't Like
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Morgan Stanley (MS)
DR Horton (DHI)
Lennar (LEN)
**

Starting? I recall you bought in quite a while ago, with less than spectacular results. I dont understand your passion for dumpster diving... you seem to hate having a bad week when the market sells the good stuff, and buys the bad stuff... its OK, you dont have to be in the green every week, its the end of the year performance that matters...