Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Steller Trina Solar (TSL) Earnings Masked by Curre...

very peculiar... makes no sense to me at all. mayb...

2008-06-06T13:57:00.000-04:00

very peculiar... makes no sense to me at all. maybe mgmt are some rabid currency speculators and know something we don't?

either way, kind of shady. i'll stay away from this one for now. hope it works out for ya though. and we'll tune in next quarter to see what kind of surprise they've got next haha

Why in the world would they switch to the USD?I th...

2008-06-06T13:45:00.000-04:00

Why in the world would they switch to the USD?

I think you're right, though, and am buying here at $45.25.

BD

hrs,if the discount to peers was not so much of a ...

2008-06-06T12:36:00.000-04:00

hrs,

if the discount to peers was not so much of a chasm I'd agree

for reference
going into yesterday (before todays swan fall)
forward PE ratios
STP 26
YGE 27
SOLF 24

and (drumroll)
TSL 15

that is using the $3.14 analysts have them at

at the $4.00 I think they will do (based on their own guidance)

11.5

So if TSL was at 20-22 PE and the gulf was say 10-15% I'd chalk that up to management discount. But this is not a gulf, this is like the distance from moon to earth.

So we can either say, thank you management for creating such an opportunity and market dislocation. Or *(@*#@(*#(@ management.

I say both ;)
I would of liked the ENER pop over the next week, cut back the position and then rebuy lower. But now its looking like that pop might half to wait until (drumroll) 2nd half 2008.

as I see itgood sector, bad [bordering on incompet...

2008-06-06T12:12:00.000-04:00

as I see it

good sector, bad [bordering on incompetent] management; fittering away opportunity and money on bad decisions

need to look for a company in this sector with better management

I dont know if it will be positive or negative -th...

2008-06-06T11:59:00.000-04:00

I dont know if it will be positive or negative -they should be hedging the currency

All I know is there was no reason to do this move - why be the only chinese solar to do this?

All they needed to 2 was put 2 good quarters back to back and you could of had your ENER type run. ENER reported one good quarter but after years of lack of trust in management, the Street wanted to see them repeat that - they did - and the stock goes on for a huge gain. Thats all TSL had to do - they had 1 great Q last time around - the street shrugged it off and said show us one more time since your management always pulls surprises - they did perform operationally but then threw this idiotic move on top of it to destroy the huge beat. If not for the huge valuation discrepency I would be in another solar stock. But at this point its valued as an auto stock. But thats what happens when management constantly "surprises" the Street - this is the 3rd time in 4 quarters they gave us something we did not expect out of the blue. The Street hates uncertainty far more than bad news - so Trina seems locked in with an uncertainty discount... but 40-50% versus peers seems a bit much.

Such easy money on Trina this morning with oil and...

2008-06-06T11:30:00.000-04:00

Such easy money on Trina this morning with oil and every other bloody solar gapping up.

The curreny move should be poitive in the future? I suck at accounting, but going forward they won't be translating dollars earned in ever more expensive RMB.

You now how the market isIn January 08 Apple did i...

2008-06-06T10:20:00.000-04:00

You now how the market is

In January 08 Apple did its typical underpromise over deliver - I wrote in the blog exactly what they were doing and how in 3 months from now we'd look back and laugh at the guidance as they smash it...which they did. That did not stop the stock from imploding 30% over the coming weeks on 'disappoining guidance' So we took a (big) hit then. Of course Apple has recovered all that and more since.

This is how lemmings work - they don't think; they jump en masse off the cliff. Those who do the homework (a) get smashed along with the lemmings but (b) can take advantage of the stupidity over the long run.

I suppose this stock can be valued at a 10 forward PE ratio the way things are going but its starting to get silly ;)

If I recall, during their first questions about ma...

2008-06-06T09:59:00.000-04:00

If I recall, during their first questions about margins, I think one of the guys said they are confident they will meet the guidance(Maybe I misheard the accent?). But what struck me was how simply he said it and how easily it came off. As if it is apparent that it is a total Apple move, and a complete repeat of the previous guidance given that was beaten. Personally I hate to add too much to one position despite my confidence in it down the road. Maybe if it pulls back some more. Good luck!