Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Do You Trust this Reversal?

I've gone back to how the VIX should really be use...

2008-07-16T02:34:00.000-04:00

I've gone back to how the VIX should really be used. It's not a specific value or threshold that needs to be attained for a certain level of panic to set in. It's more to do with a "spike" in the VIX that is important. We need to see a day that the VIX is up alot (say 5-6 points) where the index actually recovers on that day. That is, relative performance of the market, compared to the VIX. I don't think there's any magic number, although 30 has beed used to death. Once I started to see that, I thought 40 might be intraday spike it had to see.

He! Mark,You probably already heard this...SEC Enh...

2008-07-15T23:45:00.000-04:00

He! Mark,
You probably already heard this...

SEC Enhances Investor Protections Against Naked Short Selling
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
2008-143

Washington, D.C., July 15, 2008 - The Securities and Exchange Commission today issued an emergency order to enhance investor protections against "naked" short selling in the securities of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and primary dealers at commercial and investment banks.

The SEC's order will require that anyone effecting a short sale in these securities arrange beforehand to borrow the securities and deliver them at settlement. The order will take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Monday, July 21. In addition to this emergency order, the SEC will undertake a rulemaking to address these issues across the entire market.

TM, the good news i think is the last few days hav...

2008-07-15T22:11:00.000-04:00

TM,
the good news i think is the last few days have been high volume. I think the last 5 days were high volume and the last 2 bottoms in january and march only had 5-7 high volume days. Also, the recent volume spike can suggest that what we're seeing is the sellers at their finest so we should see either seller exhaustion soon, or one last bearish thrust down. You said support is at 1175 I think, in the latter scenario I guess the Mark support line will come into effect. I say this at the least to be a contrarian indicator for you - ie: I expect a bottom so it won't happen ;)

I remember you said something about how you expect more downside after this slide by year end. So are you a V or L or W or some random greek letter bottom type person?

I say that because Cramer once went over the different letter bottoms it could be back in january and he is of course your #1 blog reader ;)

The crazy movements in the indexes are why I am us...

2008-07-15T20:09:00.000-04:00

The crazy movements in the indexes are why I am using financials to determine if we can rally. General market can't stop falling until they stop eating away at it like a cancer.

I only started investing in the summer of 07. Great timing there, but at least the immediate pain disabused me of the motley fool 'TA is nonexistant gibberish' dogma.

The present market reminds me of the Red Queen in ...

2008-07-15T19:01:00.000-04:00

The present market reminds me of the Red Queen in 'Alice in Wonderland'... You've got to run full speed just to stay in place. The last two weeks have been basically day-trading for me...

jegan ;-/

I keep saying these are historic times. You can s...

2008-07-15T18:00:00.000-04:00

I keep saying these are historic times. You can search the blog at top of website for word "unprecedented" - I've used it so many times. I think if Bear went there might of been systematic failure and frankly because so much is off the balance sheet and so much is not being market correctly, much of the financial system would be technically insolvent if the accounting rules were strictly enforced. Its a lot like homebuyers - as long as home prices kept going up - being levered (0% down, 1% down, 2% down or even 105% mortgages) were fine. But when it reverses its ugly.

The same happened in the financial system. The only difference is the Feds will protect the financial system. Individual people on the other hand - they are on their own.

Welcome to America.

Here comes a poor excuse for bottom picking. But...

2008-07-15T16:59:00.000-04:00

Here comes a poor excuse for bottom picking. But during the day, the daily chart looked great for bulls. We were having a nice long tailed Doji star for the day with positive divergence in RSI. How can you lose?

Well, the last hour's slam down changed everything. Instead of a Doji star we have just another down candle. Yes, we may be forming a positive divergence in RSI but without an up day tomorrow, there is no hope in sight.

All thru these weeks of horrendous decline, my technical analysis (trying to bottom pick) has not been helping! Perhaps the technical analysis is not working because this is not a 'average' situation. Maybe this is a 'three sigma' event...

It would be best to swoosh down and get down there...

2008-07-15T16:38:00.000-04:00

It would be best to swoosh down and get down there to technical support at 1170.

1200 is useless.

and gap up opens are just prolonging the process.

VIX might be turning useless now since every hedge fund computer in America is now tagging the low 30s as a place to buy. At that point when information is so widely disbursed it tends to lose its usefulness.

Oh well the Chinese water torture continues. I read on Minyanville there have only been 3 periods of 7 weeks down in history. This could be the 4th. May 1970, March 1980, and March 2001 were the other 3. So chin up, you are part of history.
:)

Yes, I was throwing up at the close as well. It w...

2008-07-15T16:32:00.000-04:00

Yes, I was throwing up at the close as well. It was a very painful last hour for the bulls. But given how oversold the market is, perhaps we should expect this kind of horrendous intraday retesting.

I do not think bulls are safe yet. Not by any means. But if the market opens gap up tomorrow with some helpful news, we may have the long awaited technical bottom.

However I have been guessing for a bottom for three weeks now. And my account has been suffering a lot.

I'm just wondering how many equity investors who s...

2008-07-15T16:27:00.000-04:00

I'm just wondering how many equity investors who started in 03,04,05,06 thinking it was always so easy have abandoned the markets.

This is action that simply will sap most people's enjoyment completely away.

gag, what a freakin close.An hour ago I was 100% l...

2008-07-15T16:11:00.000-04:00

gag, what a freakin close.

An hour ago I was 100% long, expecting a tradable bottom based on SKF action duplicating the other bottoms. Big gap up, rally to new, ridiculous high, huge intraday reversal (15% at one point today)and close lower. Not so much now. Too bad, but any day I can close the account higher than it opened is a good one.

jay I think we make another move lower later in th...

2008-07-15T13:50:00.000-04:00

jay I think we make another move lower later in the year.

But I'd enjoy a nice bounce here, perhaps 3-5 weeks in duration. :) I'd like to rebuild the shorts off that bounce and we'll play it again Sam.

Honestly all I need is the market to go sideways for 3-5 weeks :) And I believe our positions would fly. But not in a fearful environment.

The market is heavily oversold and we are seeing p...

2008-07-15T13:41:00.000-04:00

The market is heavily oversold and we are seeing positive divergence in RSI momentum indicator. So I believe we are near a bottom.

But what follows may be only a technical bounce. After a few weeks, the market may head even lower following the deteriorating fundamentals of the economy.

Just my two cents worth.