Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: India Warns They too Cannot Subsidize Energy Costs...

wowww...that was a fast response..looks like you h...

2008-06-03T17:36:00.000-04:00

wowww...that was a fast response..looks like you have roted them.:)

thanks though..and now I will watch the similar signs in India.

back in 2005-2007,Realestate developers were not even willing to talk about price negotiation. But now they have started offering small incentives like plasma TV, free parking, vacation packages etc..one of the trouble signs may be ;)

Uhh yes, there were many signs. When people in CA...

2008-06-03T17:29:00.000-04:00

Uhh yes, there were many signs. When people in CA were making 20-25% a year appreciation, but salaries going up 3%. Sign 1.

When people were taking their CA "home equity" and using that monopoly money to go bid up prices in NV and AZ, driving local people who do not have said monopoly money to turn to crazy mortgages to keep up. Sign 2.

When I read stories of 150 people lining up outside a developer when they are doing signings for (a) new home development or (b) new condo development. Sign 3.

When I read stories of people who are flipping pre construction houses or condos - meaning pay the price when the house is not yet broken ground than flip it to next sucker when its 3 months later or 6 months later and just finishing completion. Sign 3.

When I read about mortgages that degrade from 5% down to 3% down to 0% down, to interest only to option ARM (where you literally each month have your mortgage balance INCREASE - the idea is to flip out of the home due to appreciation, but you never pay down a dime, and in fact you owe more than when you enter the mortgage). Sign 4.

When you read stories in Fortune magazine of 24 year old year old kids driving Ferrari being a mortgage broker, and he himself on top of the mortgage business is owning 7 homes and flipping them. Sign 5.

Those are 5 signs out of 100. The only question was "when". These were all apparent even in 2004/2005. Bottom didnt really begin to fall out until 2006/early 2007.

when the exuberance of real estate in US was takin...

2008-06-03T16:53:00.000-04:00

when the exuberance of real estate in US was taking shape, did you see any troubling signs in those years.
What were the signs that there is a bubble forming in housing.
I'm trying to correlate and identify similar signs in India.

You are right about MA revenue coming from overseas. With more than a billion people in India and craziness to act and live like a rich person, they are using credit cards. my dad got his credit card after one year of application. (in 2001-2002).nowadays u get it in a week.

bubbles bubbles everywheretoo much paper money cha...

2008-06-03T16:12:00.000-04:00

bubbles bubbles everywhere

too much paper money chasing too many hard assets

China also has a real estate bubble going on

these are basically all learning from the leader... us.

The "common man" will suffer across all borders in a World of Shortages. The top 1-2% will prosper. Just keep working to not be the common man... its not going to be a good environment for him the next 20-30 years - especially since another 2.5 billion common man will be born by 2050. Thats a lot of competition

I saw the news yesterday on Indian channel. Prime ...

2008-06-03T15:35:00.000-04:00

I saw the news yesterday on Indian channel. Prime Minister said he cannot help oil companies and consumer. Government can no longer take the pain and further subsidize the gas prices.

On another topic of real estate in India, the prices of homes have tripled in less than 2 years. Every software engineer bought homes at those skyrocketing prices.
Now the inflation is killing the common man. Do you know the interest rate for a 30 year home loan in India? 12.5%.( no exceptions)
If interest rates are hiked and inflation is increasing, companies not hiking salaries as they have done in past 2 years, how the hell these guys will pay those monthly payments.

yayankee - people toss most of these names in a bu...

2008-06-03T13:45:00.000-04:00

yayankee - people toss most of these names in a bucket... i.e. oil up, buy - oil down, sell.

So if oil sells off to say $115, PBR could be down 20%. Another great buying oppt for the long run.

I don't have much right now as its had a huge run but might begin to layer back in slowly soon.

p.s. never trust anything you read on Seeking Alpha! They let people like me post! ;) You can't trust bloggers!

I'm holding DUG waiting for the selloff ;)If true ...

2008-06-03T13:09:00.000-04:00

I'm holding DUG waiting for the selloff ;)

If true demand destruction were allowed to happen I believe oil would of corrected a lot already. Also keep in mind its priced in US pesos. In gold terms its barely up over the years.

If you overlay crude oil since the first Fed cut you see a direct correlation. Easy money = speculation in something. Something = commodities. Further Easy Ben = more killing of the US dollar.

It's all related.

Now the "strong dollar" proponents are coming ... lol. i.e. when the US holds rate @ 2% that is a strong dollar policy. It's pathetic but its Wall Street baby.

Careful tho, all those sentiments kept me from hol...

2008-06-03T13:02:00.000-04:00

Careful tho, all those sentiments kept me from holding PBR at 70 last fall, before it doubled and split.

PBR is a trading stock, valuation has nothing to do with its price now. It will take some sort of negative EVENT to knock it down. I doubt an oil pullback qualifies as an event.

See these overvalued comments on PBR from Seeking ...

2008-06-03T12:39:00.000-04:00

See these overvalued comments on PBR from Seeking Alpha.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/79655-petrobras-extremely-overvalued

I think we're going to see a real renaissance in n...

2008-06-03T12:34:00.001-04:00

I think we're going to see a real renaissance in nuclear energy develop over the next several years. CCJ is a great pick. I'm also in USU and THPW.

Reading your comments and other media inputs it st...

2008-06-03T12:34:00.000-04:00

Reading your comments and other media inputs it strikes me that the Oil play has topped out. This is a contrarian view based on the ponderous of comments on oil prices increasing. BTW have you seen the new advertising by Exxon Mobil on CNBC? Another indicator that Oil has topped out. Just one guy's opinion.