Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Starting Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) Po...

Oa,thats Don Coxe who I respect and agree (mostly)...

2008-08-11T17:22:00.000-04:00

Oa,

thats Don Coxe who I respect and agree (mostly) with - you can search the blog for his name

The difference between a strategist and actual fund manager is in the details. I have the same thesis as him but by following said thesis I've been losing money hand over first for 2 months now.

So I can say the same things, but that is not helping me make money right now. It is quite amazing to see what is going on in these markets.

I don't mind being wrong - but I prefer to be wrong for earnings misses or missing a trend or something. This is sort of like the Wizard of Oz behind the curtain sending waves of sell orders at everything we own :)

Bill - no nothing like this. 2002 was again bad b...

2008-08-11T17:21:00.000-04:00

Bill - no nothing like this. 2002 was again bad but that was mostly everything at depressed values

you did not see this sort of 180 degree about faces

read (6) for fertilizer : http://www.istockanalyst...

2008-08-11T16:30:00.000-04:00

read (6) for fertilizer :

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticlepaged+articleid_2493509~pageid_1.html

"Valuation is very rich at 27x forward earnings bu...

2008-08-11T16:19:00.000-04:00

"Valuation is very rich at 27x forward earnings but since people don't want fertilizer at 7x forward earnings we need to pay up for the hottest stocks in the market ;) Aye carumba"
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Mark,

this market is a joke. have you ever seen it this irrational in terms of undervaluing good stuff?
I mean it always is irrational in overvaluing bad stuff (bubbles) but this is insane.

I have a new way of looking at it which is just adds to the frustration

Invert the PE's.

The fertilizers at 6-7PE's (as you said) have like 15-16% earnings yields on forward numbers, and they have less debt so that can be pure dividend. If earnings are to get miraculously cut into 1/3 they still would yield 5-6% on earnings...and assuming a 2/3 cut in earnings is pricing in everything (risk is removed) but the sun exploding.
the 5-6% yield still beats treasuries by a large margin.

does the market realize that 27X forward numbers is like 3-4% yield..which is like a treasury and there's so much risk in BWW as opposed to sitting in a bond.

wow, how do these hedgie guys get paid like 20-100X a normal economist salary?? They earn their money less than analysts.

this world/society is a joke.

Mike, great due diligence - please send photos to ...

2008-08-11T15:56:00.000-04:00

Mike, great due diligence - please send photos to back up your evidence ;)

It's not really a lunch place in my experience - more of evening and weekends.

I agree - its a great place for the best time of the year - football season.

This is sort of like my homebuilders and retailers - I don't believe in the trend - and for all I know i could of top ticked this stock. I'm just working on creating a more balanced exposure across sectors, even the ones I don't believe in. THis market changes its mind by the day/week on what it wants to run up and while our narrow focus has worked for 10 months, the past 2 it has not worked so adjusting on the fly.

If you want to do more due diligence please check out symbol RICK and I will allow you you an unpaid visit there too ;)

I went to BWW for lunch last week. I dont go very...

2008-08-11T15:50:00.000-04:00

I went to BWW for lunch last week. I dont go very often. There weren't as many people there as I expected. Its in competition with Taco Mac for the chicken wing dollar. The place used to be crowded but doesn't seem that way lately. I think it will do well in the next few months when football kicks in. Good looking waitresses though ;-)