tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post5875417834696608798..comments2008-03-26T09:34:42.093-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-32755988577086039042008-03-26T09:34:00.000-04:002008-03-26T09:34:00.000-04:00I would just caution into believing house prices are like stocks and will rebound or bounce 20% in 2 years. People have made real estate an alternative asset class when in reality over the "long run" homes generally go up with inflation/wages - nothing more. The move in housing in past 7-8 years has people thinking things that move down 11% will bounce back at some point the same way. Reality is demographics and local economies will determine things just as they "used to".<BR/><BR/>The other thing to consider - when the auto makers went to 0% financing post 9/11 - that pulled in a lot of buyers - and people usually turn over cars every 4-5 years. They turn over homes 7-10 years. So this "era" pulled in a lot of potential buyers who otherwise would not be, therefore your pool of potential buyers (parallel to the car buyers) has been severely reduced because not only did most people who "should" own a home get pulled in but a whole class of people (5-7% of home ownership) got pulled in that didnt have the means. So they will be pushed out. <BR/><BR/>Again, homes used to be a place to live in, or at most a place to rent out as an investment. The underlying price was not considered an investment. That has only changed in the past 20 years. And while homes are not NASDAQ stocks, many NASDAQ stocks 7 years later have not even recovered 50% of their old highs. It won't be the same degree in housing but I just don't think anyone has to rush in expecting the need to catch a bottom or they will miss the next 30% move up. Its going to be a long sideways time of recovery once the bottom is reached.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-993913931397369602008-03-25T22:03:00.000-04:002008-03-25T22:03:00.000-04:00I think by eoy it might be time to buy a house. The hard part is trying to find the sweet spot between house price drops and 30 year fixed rates.Michaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14603027333434481007noreply@blogger.com