tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post5773116366899632220..comments2008-11-18T01:53:22.776-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-37681543943898360542008-11-18T01:53:00.000-05:002008-11-18T01:53:00.000-05:00In Argentina during 2001 it was grandmothers who lead protests against the government: <BR/><BR/>http://www.gamingthemarket.com/2008/10/our-engineered-market-meltdown-part-2.htmlgamingthemarkethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08889681397770964604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-88746038727420464742008-11-18T00:09:00.000-05:002008-11-18T00:09:00.000-05:00Historian David Hackett Fischer has a fascinating book that I'm now rereading: The Great Wave.<BR/><BR/>The Wave (or waves) in question are price waves or revolutions. Enormous, secular surges in prices that eventually peak and crash to be followed by relatively stable equilibriums.<BR/><BR/>Fischer is clear that waves are not cycles. Cycles require detrending of the data. Waves require no massaging.<BR/><BR/>His time frame (and the data) is long - on the order of 1000 years. In which there have been 4 waves. He concentrates only on Europe although I'm sure the scope of the analysis could be expanded.<BR/><BR/>The 4 waves are the 12th century - the culmination of the high medieval ages. The 13th century, as you may know, was one of the most disastrous on record. It was 'just' the plague. The plague was proceeded by repeated harvest failures; starvation; and massive die-offs.<BR/><BR/>Then the relatively well-know price-revolution of the 16th century (the staggering inflow of silver and gold from Latin America into Spain and then Europe).<BR/><BR/>There's a lesser known wave (in Anglo-Saxon circles) from roughtly 1730 to 1800 (given that the end corresponds relatively closely to the French Revolution you shouldn't be surprised).<BR/><BR/>And finally the great price wave of the 20th century - which I'm not sure has finished yet.<BR/><BR/>Although maybe we're living in the crashing of this wave at this moment.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, one point that stuck from his characterization of the waves and the different social properties to be found at different levels. At the crest of the wave, returns flow almost entirely to capital (the rich). Everyone else is more-or-less pauperized.<BR/><BR/>And this would be a comprehensive phenomenon. Meaning, at the present day and time, global.patflahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03146408328788278621noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-1024328510148140812008-11-17T23:28:00.000-05:002008-11-17T23:28:00.000-05:00Hey mark, any chance of you getting back to posting some sort of tracking portfolio??? Maybe give MSN Investor a try. They have pretty good portfolio tracking software. <BR/><BR/>http://moneycentral.msn.com/stock_portfoliosdk_IVhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06357215762477665878noreply@blogger.com