Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Cutting LDK Solar (LDK) Exposure

thanks for heads up on AMSC - havent looked at it ...

2008-05-13T14:00:00.000-04:00

thanks for heads up on AMSC - havent looked at it in a long time. Quick review of last earnings report shows it might be time for a review. Just hard to place value on unprofitable companies but have to love that revenue growth.

yes, someone else asked that a few weeks agodearth...

2008-05-13T13:46:00.000-04:00

yes, someone else asked that a few weeks ago

dearth of plays is exactly why and yes Vestas is the king in the arena

Most wind plays are part of larger conglomerates so its like buying Sony for video games... you dont get the benefit since its part of a huge co.

I'd been trading ZOLT for a few years on the carbon for wind turbines but that company has among the worst management ever :)

I can't buy pink sheet (OTC) for the Marketocracy.com account anyhow.

I looked at AMSC a few years ago - they never seem to make money and is like ENER, a "story stock"?

KDN I have not heard of - is it a wind play or a bearing play that happens to sell into Vestas?

Mark,Just curious, why don't you follow/own "wind ...

2008-05-13T13:29:00.000-04:00

Mark,

Just curious, why don't you follow/own "wind power" stocks for your portfolio? In fact, it seems Wall St. tends to ignore this sector which is actually much closer to cost parity than solar vs. traditional power. I guess it could be due to the dearth of plays, but there are actually a few out there. Here are the ones I follow:

AMSC - electrical components for turbines

KDN - bearings for blades (to keep them spinning)

VWSYF.pk - European co with over 1/3rd of world's marketshare for wind turbines

madFSLR does not have exposure which is why that s...

2008-05-13T12:19:00.000-04:00

mad

FSLR does not have exposure which is why that stock has been a rocket ship since early 07

ENER which I highlighted last week has a process without polysilicon

So does ESLR and EMKR, ESLR however cannot figure out how to make money.

You can read the posting "The Long Term in Solar" which I believe I linked to in the ENER posting from last week for some thoughts

I dont think much is based on oil myself... this is actually an industry with a lot of moving parts and more difficult to gauge than many others even though many people simply go with "solar is good as oil prices go higher". It is not quite that simple ;)

The idea with the polysilicon guys is, that one day polysilicon prices will return to early decade lows and their earnings should explode higher as margins expand. But then you will have a chicken and egg question - the lowering of polysilicon supply will unleash a torrent of supply onto the market. So is there enough end user demand for this supply? Or will prices plummet, putting some companies out of business.

It will be interesting!

I don't have any "1 site" - it's just from following the sector day in and day out since 2006. Due to how many sectors I follow, even my knowledge is probably a bit dated and I am constantly catching up.

You can do some looking at wikipedia as well, they have some good solar stuff there

Basically in polysili process you have
wafer -> cell -> module
some companies specialize in 1 or the other, some are more integrated with multiple pieces, etc.
So each company is somewhere in the supply chain, each with their own unique situations

I think you should just invest in a mutual fund ;) hah
No on a serious note look at my entry for TAN - its a 1 stop shop for solar that I think is better suited for those who dont really follow this group constantly. Much safer - you wont get the individual upside but you wont be wiped out and you get to play the trend

i'm pretty naive to the whole solar space and am t...

2008-05-13T11:54:00.000-04:00

i'm pretty naive to the whole solar space and am trying to figure out what differentiates the various companies. is there such a thing as a solar company that doesn't have exposure to high polysilicon costs? some have in house plants or something?

off to do more homework, because right now all these names just run together to me and i need to be able to separate them haha like oil (refiners, servicers, drillers). any sites/links/lists for this?

the other tough thing is figuring out how much of each solar's stock price is based on future earnings and how much is tied to moving with oil like it had been earlier on.