Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Is the Buck Finally Stopping for Steel?

Yeah right, look at the volume on the rebound of C...

2008-07-07T10:55:00.000-04:00

Yeah right, look at the volume on the rebound of CLF, my call this won't stick at 100. you will have lower price to buy.

here is part of your answer, the last sentence, "....

2008-07-07T05:26:00.000-04:00

here is part of your answer, the last sentence, "....It will be downstream users who will have to bear higher prices."
:)

BHP

Posted: Fri, 04 Jul 2008
[miningmx.com] -- BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc has matched Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc's near 100 percent price hike for 2008-2009 iron ore deliveries, Chinese industry officials said on Friday, ending protracted talks over contracts worth billions of dollars, Reuters reported.

The officials confirmed an unsourced report in the Australian Financial Review that BHP Billiton, the last hold-out in bitter-fought talks, had secured terms in line with takeover target Rio's 96.5 percent increase for iron ore lumps and a 79.88 increase for fines, won from Baosteel two weeks ago.

"For the industry from mills to iron ore producers, everyone wins," Judy Zhu, commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, said.

"Iron ore producers will make more money and the steel makers, although they are paying more for their raw materials, will be able to pass these higher costs to their customers. It will be downstream users who will have to bear higher prices."

Nomar,Blue = U of MichiganYou really don't do anyt...

2008-07-06T22:19:00.000-04:00

Nomar,

Blue = U of Michigan

You really don't do anything manually - you'll send a request to our transfer agent that you want to rollover an account somewhere else, and our transfer agent contacts the other brokerage (in your case Etrade) and does the transaction. When people ask me I always say never handle the money yourself - you can do it in theory but you need to roll the money over (if you take physical delivery) within 60 days I believe, or else its considered a distribution.

So I always advise - let one institution contact the other and let them do the work amongst themselves. That way you never have a chance of screwing up and/or pushing the day you get around to working on it etc. 60 days can go quickly when you have to deal with paperwork.

Thanks for the investment.

Everything I've read from his has been a lot more ...

2008-07-06T22:14:00.000-04:00

Everything I've read from his has been a lot more bullish than me on the general economy. That said - economic theory doesn't really matter - its a bottom line business and he is doing great by being in the right spots. He did short Washington Mutual so he can't be positive on everything but in a general sense he seems to believe in a much more positive outlook for the US. Only lately have I read anything on him about inflation which I was not seeing 6-9 months ago in his interviews. Whereas I've been calling for it since day 1 of the blog (and far before that) I'm obviously also a lot more concerned about inflation effects on the emerging markets (and hence US multinationals being affected) than it appears he is.

I do not compare myself to Heebner - only on that steel story did I make some comparison and in a sense of making top down concentrated bets we are similar. If I have a 25 year record of success than I'll compare myself. It's like a NBA rookie comparing themselves to Larry Bird.

Since he is almost always 100% committed to long side he should actually outperform when times are going well, and hopefully our insurance policy will help dampen some downside for us - whereas he has some bigger swoons. I know some investors simply say go for the gold and do whatever gets you the best long term performance but I think there is something to be said for avoiding some periods of carnage in terms of your investors psyche. One could argue if its better to do that through investing 95% long in the best sectors or by actually holding cash/short positions in larger magnitude - a case could be made either way. I think my strategy will be more dampening in terms of volatility than his but he could generate better long term results. But we'll see - hopefully most people hold 5-7 mutual funds and if in 5 years I am even under consideration in the same breath I'll be tickled. Since he does not like technology if we enter another era of "technology is king" in which he lagged severely the last time around that might cause some underperformance. Or maybe even solar is king (I don't see any solar in his exposure)

But since he is the current Tiger Woods it is good to have him in the line of sight - just like golfers should do even if they don't hope to beat Tiger. Bill Miller was the king before and he has fallen off his throne the past few years, and how quickly these "stars" get tossed to the side ;) A bottom line business.

We'll check back in 12 months to see if 2-4% US growth is there. As you know that means if the real economy is growing 0 to -2% then the government reports will show 2-4% ;) So maybe he has a chance on that. Somehow I doubt it but I'll be happy to be wrong because it means investing on the long side will be a lot easier.

cool, sorry 4 being lazy multitasking here w/Soxs ...

2008-07-06T22:13:00.000-04:00

cool, sorry 4 being lazy multitasking here w/Soxs game on. I have small IRA w/e*trade. I'll pledge 5k and will do the manual rollover, if not listed with them, if necessary.

Go Blue?

It is quite interesting Mark. You compare yoursel...

2008-07-06T21:46:00.000-04:00

It is quite interesting Mark. You compare yourself to Heebner or at least strive to mimic his strategy (although you have your unique touch to it)

But you are very bearish on US economy, while he is rather bullish (relative to the street now)

He doesn't make sense though, he says high inflation will contract PE's so how can he be bullish. It seems that he believes the government's "creative" numbers.

what do you think of Heebner's comments in the link above? I am just wondering because I would find your reaction priceless because I think you two have such similar investing themes yet different longer term sentiments.

Really depends on the market. If this 1260 is bro...

2008-07-06T21:33:00.000-04:00

Really depends on the market. If this 1260 is broken, S&P 1225 looks very viable and I'd expect more shooting of the generals.

IPI actually IPO'd in $30s - it just priced immediately in upper $40s. I was hoping it would price in $20s like it was proposed originally and then open in the $30s ... thats the last time I'll write an article titled "You thought the hottest IPO in 2008 was VISA? Wrong!" ;)

But to your question - stocks over the past year have been many times hostage to the market - not like 2003-early 2007 when they could rise/drop in a near vacuum, on their own volition. The drops nowadays are being caused by marked selloffs in the market. So to answer your own question you probably need to make a call on the overall market. I'll just say we remain at the precipice. (cliff)

Hi PeterThat is covered in the FAQ (top right of t...

2008-07-06T21:29:00.000-04:00

Hi Peter

That is covered in the FAQ (top right of the blog) Frequently Asked Questions.

Short answer yes

Everything a typical mutual fund can do we can do. We just won't be offered in the fund supermarkets or brokerages right away. Brokerages within a year, and fund supermarkets down the road when/if we get to a certain (big) size due to the onerous costs. But in terms of what type of accounts - anything a typical fund offers we will do the same. Thanks for the link - will take a gander.

what u think more pullback on CLF coming? IPI is ...

2008-07-06T21:28:00.000-04:00

what u think more pullback on CLF coming? IPI is now back to IPO levels

Hey Mark,Got some Heebner comments in today's Bost...

2008-07-06T21:16:00.000-04:00

Hey Mark,

Got some Heebner comments in today's Boston Sunday Globe:
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/07/06/portfolio_manager_casts_an_optimistic_eye_on_economy/

Also, sorry to be a loser but will I be able to transfer IRA funds when u are up and running? If so I would be happy to pledge 5k

Peter M
Hubbardston MA