Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: I'm Meaningfully Adding Short Exposur...

yup good call. i loaded up on COF puts today becau...

2008-04-30T22:26:00.000-04:00

yup good call. i loaded up on COF puts today because like you said the last catalyst has past us and we still can't break through 1400 and there is still no volume. stopping out above 55-57 anywhere in there, pick your stop, conservative or aggressive. tons of overhead resistance technically for this name.

short GLD as well if it breaks and closes below $86 (support) and then stop out if it hits 87 or so.

and lastly, i can't wait for the ARM reset party coming in july haha. weeeee

Yes I noticed the commodities did well; even gold ...

2008-04-30T16:16:00.000-04:00

Yes I noticed the commodities did well; even gold popped.

If we can put 2 good days of action - I guess the dollar is strong trade is already over? I mean it lasted a whopping 4 days now - thats an epic victory for the US Peso.

We'll need some confirmation but I'll be happy to reverse some trades I did today as long as the coast is clear.

The hedge fund super computers have to think this over tonight before they decide what group to jump into tomorrow. I believe Ben even confused them.... I was shocked there was not stronger language towards inflation...

Post fed cut:Ags held their value well. MON has s...

2008-04-30T16:07:00.000-04:00

Post fed cut:

Ags held their value well. MON has set a nice bounce off the bollinger under its 100 SMA and closed at the 100 SMA.

USO tested and closed above its intermediate bollinger, tho the 1 month+ stochastics remain negative.

DBA bounced off the lower bollinger and turned its 1 month + stochastics positive.

GLD regained the lower bollinger and closed above it, turned the 1 month + stochastics positive.

Truly the inflation dragon is slain by the Feds conservative action today:P

Long TWM, will be long SKF and DGP as soon as they pull back.

D, Please put down the remote, walk away from the ...

2008-04-30T15:42:00.000-04:00

D,

Please put down the remote, walk away from the CNBC... no run.
Major misnomers

Prices have fallen year over year 20%. CA, FL, NV, AZ - the heart of the "prine run ups" no one who bought in 07 and almost no one from 06 is above water

#2 MANY neighborhoods were speculators - not home owners - when their investment went bad they are gone. Period. They are not sticking around

#3 MANY of those subprime folks never made their first payment.

#4 The fed impacts ARMs only which are now down to 5%ish of all mortgages, used to be close to 60% at one point in boom times. Long term rates are actually going up (the ones mortgages are based on) So Fed could cut to zero, and it would not matter.

#5 these people who want to refinance are by and large not going to by credit conditions alone.

d, be afraid. This has nothing to do with ARM rates - if you had given me that argument in April 2007 I would agree with you. We are WAY PAST that now. Way past.

"Long Ultrashort Russell 2000 in fund and personal...

2008-04-30T15:31:00.000-04:00

"Long Ultrashort Russell 2000 in fund and personal account"

Smart :)

My take on the Fed's doings is that they are lower...

2008-04-30T15:30:00.000-04:00

My take on the Fed's doings is that they are lowering rates to get homeowners to refi their mortgages which were unaffordable with big resets. Rather than have homeowners out on the street or renting the FED is giving homeowners a TEMPORARY window to refi. Yes, some of the homes have lost value and are underwater, however that is what a market is about. The FED will likely raise rates late in the fall. Take the refi and worry about your home value later.