Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Did this Rally Turn Louise Yamada into a Bull?

I have been following Louise Yamada's prognosticat...

2009-05-24T02:03:11.284-04:00

I have been following Louise Yamada's prognostications for many years, and I consider her to be in the rare "genius" class. She doesn't do short term. She sees the big picture and gives specific, hard number recommendations to buy or sell based on her chart readings. She recommended buying Gold when it was $300. She predicted oil would hit $150 a barrel before anyone else even recognized it was in a bull market. She said buy bonds years ago, and she has said to continue to own them, as interest rates have hit historical lows (meaning the bonds went higher). And she called the bear market years, literally, before it happened.

I would not bet against her. She is far more often right than wrong.

another Dr. gloom Peter Schiff doesn't seem to buy...

2009-04-10T11:24:00.000-04:00

another Dr. gloom Peter Schiff doesn't seem to buy the mark to market accounting changes either. He feels modeling the value of MBS on cash flow basis is going to cause the banks to write down soon again in future when they realize the cash flows on these MBSs are also going down.

TM

That's my point....they trot out the per...

2009-04-09T20:49:00.000-04:00

TM

That's my point....they trot out the person who made the "call" many months ago and of course, it is the bottom. In other words, she was so smart (i.e, lucky) many months ago, so now we bring out to tell us what to do now, and of course, she is off by a country mile.

Thanks TM.. Saved me the time looking up her recen...

2009-04-09T17:25:00.000-04:00

Thanks TM.. Saved me the time looking up her recent thoughts. Part of the problem with prognosticating is that people don't specify a timeframe for their guesses. So someone will say we're in a bull market... But maybe they're on a weekly plan. Louise is much longer term. Her view spans years.

Actually both times she appeared on CNBC the marke...

2009-04-09T16:05:00.000-04:00

Actually both times she appeared on CNBC the market made intermediate bottom within a week :)

I suspect over time Yamada will be right; when she...

2009-04-09T15:59:00.000-04:00

I suspect over time Yamada will be right; when she first came on TV with her calls no one paid her any attention. Then many months later after the market tanked, people remember to get her back on TV because she made the "call". All of a sudden she is the go to pundit; she saw it coming and there was no luck involved! So they bring her back to TV just when the market has gone down forever and lo and behold she is wrong as the market screams higher several days later. Classic.

That's operational PE
Over the years we'...

2009-04-09T14:47:00.000-04:00

That's operational PE
Over the years we've moved to pro forma which excludes many adjustment like say... massive handouts to executives via stock options. That's now imaginary and does not count against the company. While the money is real, the penalty to the company is imaginary.

Just imagine if we used operational PE like old days - might be at S&P 300. It really would show how companies are now run off as wealth generators for the few at the top.

Thankfully we've all agreed to wink wink and only use pro forma.

Whats a PE of 150 when you are already at 100? Gr...

2009-04-09T14:17:00.000-04:00

Whats a PE of 150 when you are already at 100? Green shoots!!