tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post5224015146386227712..comments2008-02-10T14:08:17.853-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-43031495195071018562008-02-10T14:08:00.000-05:002008-02-10T14:08:00.000-05:00Hi David,<BR/>If you don't mind could you add your comment to the "Progress Towards Raising $15M" entry so I have it all in 1 place? thanks<BR/><BR/>Yes a very tough market right now.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-58931448894777670022008-02-09T11:52:00.000-05:002008-02-09T11:52:00.000-05:00Look at the symmetry of this chart, from 100 to 280 in three months, my guess is it would do the same on the way down with a stop at 120 then settle down at 100, around late march. Some of your comment regarding poly shortage should be change to poly oversupply in 2009 which cause margin compression, i believe that's what market is trading for. At one point your solar holding is as high as Fertilizer, if DBA start correct, i believe Pot and MOs will suffer.hieunguyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12450038505274285042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-46883716437567000512008-02-08T19:27:00.000-05:002008-02-08T19:27:00.000-05:00Thanks for your thoughts - I realized that after I had posted my comment that you can't short stocks while running a mutual fund. I think the slow and study method always wins out in the end. <BR/>I just found your blog today and have been reading some of your posts - nice analysis, but tough market at this time. You can go ahead and put me down for $5k in your fund when you start it up, possibly more if I can ever make any money back in this market this year.davidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14563854048297498777noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-81735564719453240052008-02-08T16:44:00.000-05:002008-02-08T16:44:00.000-05:00I can't short individual names for the fund, so I use ETFs.<BR/><BR/>I consider shorting a retail dominated stock like any solar to be high risk/high reward. Many of these stocks move +/-30% post earnings (or more) And many move with no semblence of sense (they go much too high with no tangible association with value and vice versa). It is hard to fight the herd! Even tougher gaming it going into earnings.<BR/><BR/>So if you are a Las Vegas type, it's probably worth a shot, but understand you could lose a lot instantly. I like to hit a lot of singles, doubles, and the occasional triple. Taking a large stake in any company ahead of earnings is a home run or strikeout proposition. Especially solar. So either a huge score or you go home with tail between legs. :) Not my cup of tea.<BR/><BR/>With all that said, other than ISRG and MA I cannot recall any company with any valuation of significant level doing well post earnings in this cycle. I might be missing a few who did do well, other than those 2, but its been running 95% crash/5% boom this earnings season. Worse than usual. I am sure many of the FSLR investors are BIDU, ISRG, AAPL, GOOG types so they will be wary. Or should be.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75534906038585059512008-02-08T16:25:00.000-05:002008-02-08T16:25:00.000-05:00Would you consider shorting FSLR - it seems that too many variables need to be right for the stock to go up (earnings, outlook, margins, etc) and only one little thing can tank the whole stock? Thanks in advance - just found your blog and am very intrigued with your trades and analysis - DavidDavidhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14563854048297498777noreply@blogger.com