tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post5164898606599255600..comments2008-05-22T11:10:45.047-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-78754102143402952752008-05-22T11:10:00.000-04:002008-05-22T11:10:00.000-04:00shax, that bespoke graph is amazing<BR/><BR/>but the difference is back then, banks were allowed to go bankrupt (S&Ls at least) and they admitted the truth<BR/><BR/>We are now in a Japanese era where the regulators are helping the banks avoid the truth and the Fed is sucking up all the bad assets in return for Treasuries in hopes things improve in '2nd half' or 'soon'.<BR/><BR/>Where are we in comparison to the 00-02 slowdown? I mean isnt it better to compare bubble (tech) to bubble (credit/housing)? <BR/><BR/>I know you are comparing to financial corrections BUT that was a different era of relative transparency and honesty. We are in a new era. Japan style!TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-71886647887521836562008-05-22T09:37:00.000-04:002008-05-22T09:37:00.000-04:00pankaj,<BR/><BR/>my purchase yesterday of DUG shows you where I think things are going in the near term<BR/><BR/>The long term outlook has remained unchanged. We are in a World of Shortages - and American leadership is too busy grilling oil executives instead of thinking of real solutions.<BR/><BR/>Manhattan project for Energy needs to be started - it should of been started 5 years ago. By the time they start - we will still have a 5-10 year lag.<BR/><BR/>The only "saving grace" is the higher commodities go, the closer we get to a worldwide recession. At some price point China and India can no longer afford to subsidize their costs and I'm reading some smaller countries stopping doing so now (or increasing the costs to their people)<BR/><BR/>At $150-$170 oil we will have bankruptcies in airlines, and closings of stores, and other assorted things. All "good things" to the stock market I guess. People do not realize petrol goes into everything. Why are the railroads doing well - they are passing along all costs to producers in surcharge. This is a zero sum game. Someone pays for it, either producer (lower margins) or consumer (higher prices) or both.<BR/><BR/>If the predictions of $170-$200 oil do come true and its anytime in the next 6-18 months, I am fully confidant we will have global recession. Demand destruction will happen everywhere. In the end economics 101 will win out.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75212422440598876292008-05-22T09:16:00.000-04:002008-05-22T09:16:00.000-04:00Listening to CNBC on the Sirius Radio this morning, and it is clear that there is a belief that if oil wasn't so high then the stock market would do better. Second, there are many who are participating in oil who are calling this a bubble; yet these same folks had no problem calling the NASDAQ bubble a new paradigm only because they were part of it. Third, for a bubble to happen, both the fundamental and price must be out of sync; prices are ahead of fundamentals (up 10% in 2 weeks) but the fundamental picture for crude oil is unlikely to change for a long time. Fourth, those darn speculators are the new boogie men.<BR/><BR/>Lastly, my statement above that "this is a bear market" is based upon my own work across not only theSP500 but multiple markets. I would ask two questions in relation to the chart that Bespoke Research shows: 1) what does this mean for prices going forward? 2) how does this help me make money. This kind of research in my opinion is just noise unless you can answer these two questions.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-46581901735452376892008-05-22T08:40:00.000-04:002008-05-22T08:40:00.000-04:00Marko.. You deserve a crowning ceremony for calling the Coal rally way ahead of the whole world... :)..<BR/><BR/>BTW, CNBC is hosting a show tonight, "Americas Oil Crisis". Is this a sur e sign of the near term top - I think it is. What say about oil and OIH near term? <BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>PankajPankajhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13478816568647309907noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91417695915598080712008-05-22T00:27:00.000-04:002008-05-22T00:27:00.000-04:00**1) this is a bear market**<BR/><BR/>American middle class is in a bear market, but that doesnt necessarily mean the stock market will be. 60% of S&P earnings come from overseas.<BR/><BR/>Here is a chart for you to consider:http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/images/2008/05/14/19901991.pngshaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75786514701101335512008-05-21T22:35:00.000-04:002008-05-21T22:35:00.000-04:00TraderMark: As you know, I have been stating for weeks now that: 1) this is a bear market; 2) this rally is built on a poor foundation (i.e., bad breadth); 3) the rally would likely stall at the 40 week MA; 4) sentiment was getting too bullish so one of the main "reasons" for the rally was no longer true; 5) there is no edge in technical buying in closes above the 40 week MA.<BR/><BR/>Having said all that, it would not surprise me to see a bounce going into the holiday weekend; wouldn't want to spoil everybody's picnic and potato solid? Seriously, this market has been very gracious in my opinion to traders. Why? You will have another opportunity to sell higher.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75615442633042110522008-05-21T16:38:00.000-04:002008-05-21T16:38:00.000-04:00mark, all i can say today is Booyah!<BR/><BR/>But now I need to go back and review all my bids.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.com