tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post5156334052170978004..comments2008-04-03T14:20:17.266-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-19594876557988913902008-04-03T14:20:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:20:00.000-04:00oops, sorry for the typo above... I meant SHOOT up. SHOOT. Hopefully no one under 18 is reading ;)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-43825913986166627282008-04-03T14:19:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:19:00.000-04:00Jerry you nailed it<BR/>The problem is as analysts finally "get it" they raise estimates. At some point they will get to a point they raise earnings too far, the company executing perfectly, misses some outrageous target and instead of 70% growth, a company comes in at 69.887% and the stock sells off 40%<BR/><BR/>Isn't that great logic? That's how our markets work.<BR/><BR/>What I've loved about fertilizer thus far is analysts are wrong, and thus beating the number is "in the bag". Each progressive quarter it will get tougher to hold these names around earnings because they will beat by "less and less", and eventually "miss".... all giving fodder for bears. <BR/><BR/>In this world if a company is growing 50% but expectations are 35% it is far better than if a company is growing 65% and the expectations are 60%. You'd think 65% is better than 50% but not in the world of investing. It's all about the "expectations game". With this increase by Merrill Lynch, the expectations will shit up. That said, the stock prices do not currently reflect these new rosy numbers.<BR/><BR/>D, I can't cut and paste, its in pdf - I'll give you the 1st paragraph summary thoughts<BR/>Fertilizer share price volatility has increased due to macro concerns about speculative interesting commodities shifting to the short side, but crop and fertilizer supply.demand fundamentals have continued to strengthen. Global corn and wheat stocks are at 30/60 year lows... we see the recent pullback as buying oppt. Sharply higher nat gas prices have eroded nitrogen profitability ... <BR/><BR/>then it just breaks down each point. Much of what I have written here.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-23766866202362256852008-04-03T14:13:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:13:00.000-04:00Can you post at least some of the ML news.dhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08500359981802753931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-42139718817301733332008-04-03T14:01:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:01:00.000-04:00I enjoy your blog. I'm a big fan of MOS CF too. But still on a short term bases, I am not sure how careful I need to be. Last time I was with the shipping sector, it was like now when these stupid analysts come out to raise earning estimates, the next thing you know, all stocks start tanking and haven't fully recovered. I'm still holding MOS tho at this point.Jerryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16162525656807620846noreply@blogger.com