Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Chinese Agree to $576 Price Point for Potash

AGU is less of a pure play as they have a retail c...

2008-04-16T13:11:00.000-04:00

AGU is less of a pure play as they have a retail component. It has the lowest multiple for that reason, and is simply playing catch up. If you plot their charts AGU has been the laggard by a long shot.

Observe here

http://tinyurl.com/3qocbk

I decided to stay with my gameplan, which has serv...

2008-04-16T12:44:00.000-04:00

I decided to stay with my gameplan, which has served me well in the past. And it is not until we start to hear 'hiding in commodities' that I seriously want to cut exposure. That seemed to happen in Aug, Nov/Dec.. and is starting to play out again. The relative outperformance is pretty clear again. That being said, I still took a tiny bit off again today, bringing my down to 2/3 of a fully committed position (which for me, is viewed as extremely agressive). (note that I hate going below 1/2, because every time I get that low, I end up regretting it) But first of all, I'm a risk manager, and that trumps the speculative guessing game. So, discipline states to take some money and buy something nice with it.

I agree, there is no real spare capacity. Which is why when MOS increased their capacity numbers, it got that boost. So, im wondering if it was even possible for any other firms to expand, even slightly. This is more of a company by company assessment, rather than an industry view. Because MOS has already done so, and POT has that premium... that leaves AGU, which has ramped recently, more than others for reasons I am not quite sure of.

If you are a traditional investor the consensus vi...

2008-04-16T11:22:00.000-04:00

If you are a traditional investor the consensus view is simply put a trailing stop of say 7% below the closing price each day and let it ride. Lemmings can take names much farther than anyone imagines.

I'm being more conservative by taking out profits but once something gets on a roll it can go much farther than anyone imagines. Hence the trailing stop methodology.

My goals were $200 MOS and $250 POT in a year when the India news came out. POT isn't so far from that already. Quite amazing.

The major countries are now accounted forThere is ...

2008-04-16T11:19:00.000-04:00

The major countries are now accounted for

There is no spare capacity - that is what people don't get. You can't go an open a mine and bring more online; it takes years.

The question now is what is in the stocks and what is not.

There will be pullbacks along the way, but as I've stated each time these pullback you need to load up. And then sell into euphoria.

Mark, Im mourning the loss of the capotex i sold y...

2008-04-16T10:26:00.000-04:00

Mark, Im mourning the loss of the capotex i sold yesterday. But the run-up in stock prices is just crazy. I am trying to weigh the risk:reward between selling more or holding. They arent up against any trendline resistance.. not for another 20 pts on MOS. So, Im trying to objectively review what upside there is in the short term. (1-3 months)

Are we going to see any more announced contract price increases for fertilizer?

Can there be any capacity increases from any of the major producers?

Will there be analyst upgrades?

My preliminary thoughts are (no, maybe, yes)

What other positives (negatives) can show up to drive prices higher in the near term?

I'd appreciate your thoughts.