Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Fantastic News - Inflation Dragon Officially Slaye...

The market is pricing in 1.75% fed funds rate, wit...

2008-03-14T14:49:00.000-04:00

The market is pricing in 1.75% fed funds rate, with no inflation, with crude dropping back to low 80s, with a 2nd half recovery causing a huge boom in 2nd half profits, with an end to housing death spiral by this fall, with end of credit issues by this spring, with no degradation in employment, with full decoupling of foreign markets, with ability of Fed to solve everything with its magic wand aka printing press.

So let's hope all this comes true, because thats a lot of Kool aid to be pricing in and if things start not to happen as wished for, the market needs to price in the worst case scenarios.

isn't the market pricing in or expecting .75? i t...

2008-03-14T14:15:00.000-04:00

isn't the market pricing in or expecting .75? i thought they set up the auction window this week because they were starting to realize they couldn't cut their way out of this problem without having runaway inflation. i guess the question becomes if the FED has the "kahonas" to disappoint the market in the short term. their recent track history says no. but i believe that any decent rally in the near term has to coincide with a pull back in oil. and thats just not going to happen with the FED destroying the dollar. oil is the new currency now. i think i need to make space in my basement for a couple of barrels right next to the bullions :)

Haha, I'm long everything when it comes to food st...

2008-03-14T13:59:00.000-04:00

Haha, I'm long everything when it comes to food stuffs. I don't know enough about gold to make a call, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Chinese and Indians aren't suddenly going to stop eating :)

I'm sure they'll cut .50 next week. The problem is that even though Bernanke publicly says there is no inflation he has to be worried. He also has to start worrying that if he cuts next week that only leaves him with 250 bps left to play with.

Rogers is spot on. We have to let some of the overinflated wealth deflate. This means the fed should leave rates unchanged at the next meeting. Let the market do it's song and dance (correct) and then let things settle down before starting to raise rates again. The economy partied like a rockstar for years. The longer they keep pushing off the hangover, the worse it's going to be.

I was thinking 50 basis points until todaynow perh...

2008-03-14T13:50:00.000-04:00

I was thinking 50 basis points until today

now perhaps 75

feds fund futures now are giving a 40% chance of 100 basis points

sad overall

thanks for the link, I'll take a look

commodities are due for a pullback but the forced devaluation of the dollar is not allowing it.

hey T-Mark,well since inflation is benign does thi...

2008-03-14T13:17:00.000-04:00

hey T-Mark,

well since inflation is benign does this mean we can short gold and that commodities are due for a pull back? ;)

so what are your thoughts on how much the FED will cut next week and what is priced into the market? i was thinking they cut .50 but since theres no inflation, well they can obviously cut more.

i don't know if you've seen this but my boy Mr. Rogers was on CNBC. this guy has just been right on this entire time. i wish he had ran a mutual fund, sigh...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23588079/site/14081545

The article I read about the CPI report made me la...

2008-03-14T11:26:00.000-04:00

The article I read about the CPI report made me laugh. First it said no increase in fuel prices. Um, all you have to do is drive around to see that's not true. Second it said food prices went up some, but that was because of increased fuel costs. I thought fuel prices were unchanged last month? How anyone can read and write these reports with a straight face is beyond me!