tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post4415990658211614286..comments2007-11-16T13:04:15.485-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-68505145905656883562007-11-16T13:04:00.000-05:002007-11-16T13:04:00.000-05:00No, I think we are heading (or in) recession. If not, major slowdown i.e. 1% GDP or below (although govt reports might say otherwise)<BR/><BR/>I am thinking more of shortages. We have had a couple hundred million worldwide move to cities from farms in past 3-4 years. More will be coming in next half decade. Perhaps 300-400M worldwide. Most of those were self sufficient farmers. Now they will be urban dwellers. And throw in the biofuel needs on top of that. etc<BR/><BR/>So while recession here will hurt imports and things like that I am thinking more structural change on a global scale. 2006 was the first year that more people lived in cities than on farms in the world. I only expect that trend to continue. If it gets to a 60/40 ratio in next 10 years its going to strain every resource we have.<BR/><BR/>So thats my thesis and I am sticking to it. :)TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-15553912232344923952007-11-16T11:58:00.000-05:002007-11-16T11:58:00.000-05:00From the surface it seems like it may be the sweetspot, but if a moderate recession hits I wonder how it will effect agri prices. I would think that agri prices would get hit pretty hard. So are you with the school of taught that we are not headed towards a recession?pikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07232392792291613838noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-69935319358546874812007-11-16T11:56:00.000-05:002007-11-16T11:56:00.000-05:00that link did not work, click on the label cloud for Mosaic and go to the Oct 9th entry, I wrote about MOO at the bottom. Sorry about that!TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-46778603880567228312007-11-16T11:55:00.000-05:002007-11-16T11:55:00.000-05:00Click this link<BR/>I like the MOO<BR/><BR/>http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2007/10/more-color-on-mosaic-mos-earnings.html<BR/><BR/>I have essentially built my own MOO with my favorite names<BR/>Agco, CNH Global, and 3 fertilizer companies but for simplicity and a play on ag MOO is a very nice and simple way to do it. <BR/><BR/>You said low risk, high return - I dont think such a thing exists ;) but for my book ag is going to be in the sweet spot for decades...TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-71928834289873079992007-11-16T11:29:00.000-05:002007-11-16T11:29:00.000-05:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>How do you feel about MOO being an overall low risk-high return play in the AGRI industry.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com