tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post4285825958049759122..comments2008-10-28T02:52:37.884-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-28029384458757998382008-10-28T02:52:00.000-04:002008-10-28T02:52:00.000-04:00*adjust for inflation the stock market is up 35%*<BR/><BR/>Yea but... You are forgetting all the dividends that have been paid out...shaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-83080344630979868502008-10-27T16:44:00.000-04:002008-10-27T16:44:00.000-04:00Ok, with AAPL. If everyone sold AAPL for the 75% gain, then it wouldn't go up.....if everyone sells the price doesn't say high..that is why stock prices are not the real value....dividends are.<BR/><BR/>The price is speculation, only speculation, especially in the shorter term.<BR/><BR/>All that matters is the dividend.<BR/><BR/>Stock price is the "discounted price of future cash flows (dividends)"<BR/><BR/><BR/>And I don't recommend dogs of dow, because usually those stocks have little growth and need divi cuts..and the Dogs only yield like 5-6% which is garbage if there's no growth, or worse negative growth.<BR/><BR/>I don't like the US markets period.soccerbill8http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-8387586065729040862008-10-27T16:41:00.000-04:002008-10-27T16:41:00.000-04:00I think foreign stocks are so much better<BR/><BR/>I mean I believe New Zealand yields like 7% and Australia somewhere near there. Canadien energy trusts yeild north of 15% sometimes<BR/><BR/>Why invest in the Dow that yields only 3-4%???? And has a pricey PE and no growth (bad economy fundamentals)<BR/><BR/>In theory when the DOW's price goes down, you shouldn't see panic because all that matters is the dividends because dividends are the true value of stocks...but 99% of investors are morons and only care about the stock price which shows nothing of value. If Enron payed a big dividend, wouldn't it show there was real value to be had...Worldcom too.<BR/><BR/>I cannot stand people panicking over losing $$ in stock market lately....stocks are not real wealth...only the dividends you receive are. And one should be checking on the ability of the companies to pay those dividends...so to people who lost a lot over the last month I ignore most of them because all that went down was the price...the price can change rapidly...but the underlying fundamentals and dividend paying ability doesn't change or decrease 30% in a month like the market did. <BR/><BR/>I just don't like US markets...there is no value for the most part.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I hate buybacks....all they do is prop up pieces of paper that really technically have no value if they don't pay dividends ever.<BR/><BR/>Not to suck up, I like the Mark approach because although many of his "cheap" stocks do not pay dividends..they certainly are acquisition targets and are cash rich or will be and could pay dividends....and many are below liquidation value<BR/><BR/>I think you can say that about names like APWR, and all the coal stocks.soccerbill8http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-842201346867589732008-10-27T16:33:00.000-04:002008-10-27T16:33:00.000-04:00The Dogs of the Dow method is reminiscent of what you're saying; therefore, assume stocks shouldn't outperform, and just pick high dividend stocks. I could argue why the person in AAPL (or an actual dividend paying stock) wasn't able to take a 75% gain but rather be satisfied with a measly 5% annual dividend to justify riding the principal back down to zero.crappyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17601884181311375715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-55070584140781966482008-10-27T16:19:00.000-04:002008-10-27T16:19:00.000-04:00agree with soccerbill8... owning a stock long term that does not pay a dividend is like owning a cow that you cannot milk. Sure you are the owner (or part owner), and sure the cow was giving out gallons of milk, but if you get none of it, you will eventually end up with a cow that cannot produce anything.... or worse, dies out. I would never pay anything more than the liquidation value for any non-dividend yielding stock<BR/><BR/>sure you can trade it around, but you will have nothing to show for the time you owned it. For long term investors, good growth focused mutual funds are probably the only non-dividend paying entities to own in the stock market...like CGMFX or the Rising Tide Growth Fund. You just cannot own individual stocksNWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07120499944451799757noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-68210367517213130202008-10-27T15:37:00.000-04:002008-10-27T15:37:00.000-04:00When the guy on realmoney said how stocks appreciated 1% since 1960s in real terms it makes sense.<BR/><BR/>Stock price appreciate is not why you invest, in theory stocks' price should never increase much more than inflation as a whole.<BR/><BR/>The dividend is what makes stock's better than bonds...<BR/><BR/>US stocks pay pathetic dividends.<BR/><BR/><BR/>If AAPL went to $30 by next year, and you were smart enough to buy AAPL in 2005 at $30...guess what, you made $0.....because it don't pay dividends.<BR/><BR/>Sorry for the rant, but I think it is the dividends that only matter...and that is precisely why our stock market is way over-valued (in my opinion)<BR/><BR/>stock yields are still below the 10yr note yield. Why own stocks(as a group)?<BR/><BR/>US companies blow all their money on buybacks which just inflate their stock price..I agree buybacks are sometimes good like in curreny market conditions with stocks like APWR....but when companies buy back stock at 52 week high...that is criminal.soccerbill8http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.com