tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post42756268220543471..comments2008-11-19T00:50:52.854-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-54732938093693667812008-11-19T00:50:00.000-05:002008-11-19T00:50:00.000-05:00That is odd... I would have thought that this merger would have gone through. Fording Coal and Teck Cominco just went through the end of October. And the Budweiser/Imbev thing did as well.. I expected that this would be a good time for a steel company to pick up a coal source before the rush...<BR/><BR/>jeganjeganhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05850061548373752817noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-14671451228980881132008-11-19T00:47:00.000-05:002008-11-19T00:47:00.000-05:00Nothing to do with CLF or ANR, but I thought I would pass on a good read. http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?print=trueSiahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05915856696281889732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-3842196486068070602008-11-19T00:32:00.000-05:002008-11-19T00:32:00.000-05:00One other point: had I used my general rule of never letting any stock lose more than 15% like I do with all stocks instead of looking at POT as an exception because of the tremendous long term fundamentals I would have more available cash to invest right now and would probably be a bit more aggressive even now. <BR/><BR/>Just goes to show that breaking rules for any stock is usually a bad idea. Lesson learned. If not for POT and MOS I would be wildly successful in this market but "if not for" is a very important phrase. I've learned and I hope others use risk management for every stock and never get too bullish on any piece of paper.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-89762350483342185272008-11-19T00:22:00.000-05:002008-11-19T00:22:00.000-05:00TM,<BR/><BR/>Excellent link on Rogers' blog and on the Prudent Investor blog. Thanks.<BR/><BR/>I have studied the deflation/inflation issue in fair detail in the last few months because I felt it would have a big impact on how the markets and individual sectors would perform. Deflation has won out for now and Precther, who has been predicting this for years, has been right on the mark. (For those interested internet search "Conquer the Crash... a deflationary depression" by Robert Prechter. It was written earlier this decade and is a great read. I highly recommend it. <BR/><BR/>In a deflationary situation everything goes down. Everything. I think this has been shown so far. <BR/><BR/>When we sufficiently overcome the huge credit inflation of the last 25 years (whenever that may be) I agree with Rogers that we will see hyperinflation. I agree with most of what Rogers says... except that I personally believe that the rise in the dollar is much more than just a short squeeze- it is the unwinding of years and years of easy money that has inflated the dollar enormously. According to Prechter, we are still early in the deflationary contraction. He predicted a commodity top in May (only a few months off... amazing accuracy in my opinion) and sees commodities bottoming cerca 2012. <BR/><BR/>So when it comes to commodities, especially ag commodities, I fully agree with Rogers and hence have not sold my fertilizer stocks (though it has hurt a bit for sure) but I am not willing to be too aggressive by adding in this space except for trades until the market and/or commodities show some technical sign of improvement.<BR/><BR/>To predict the market ten years out you have to either be really really accurate or really really stupid.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.com