tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post4216776653565150244..comments2008-05-06T11:28:39.226-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-58019152810538538532008-05-06T11:28:00.000-04:002008-05-06T11:28:00.000-04:00shax, it is pathetic isn't it? or more pathetic that FNM is up on this news. <BR/><BR/>I use them as counterweights - when the Kool Aid is running heavy I trim, when its not I am adding.<BR/><BR/>I think the "view" towards these names has changed materially since the Federal Reserve put via Bear Stearns. They have gone from 'sell the rallies' to 'buy the dips' - I am speaking to financials in particular. Homebuilders have been in that condition since late last fall.<BR/><BR/>I consider it a barbell approach - I am top heavy on one barbell (stuff that actually has fundamentals), and light on the other so that when we have weeks like last week the early cycle junk actually contributes.<BR/><BR/>I am not even going to bother to look at the DHI report. I can tell you 3 quarters from now we will see the same report. But just imagine one day when they report a SLOWDOWN in losses, the stock will rocket 100% ? lol. It is quite a joke but that is the psychology of the market. People with logic have no place here.<BR/><BR/>Brian, NOV is strange. Frankly its been lagging for the better part of 6-7 months its peer group. I don't have any good reason since it continues to execute. But it shows why its best to have a basket approach - you might pick the wrong one for the near term - some of its peers (in oil service) have really taken off. That's a head scratcher to me. I still think its a dominant player in its niche in the long run. Stock just doesn't seem to be reacting.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-18413798750288111152008-05-06T11:23:00.000-04:002008-05-06T11:23:00.000-04:00Hey Mark,<BR/><BR/>Great blog! Appreciate your market insights. Any thoughts on NOV here and what may be behind the weak action relative to other oil service co's? Hopefully its finds support around the 200-day moving average. I initiated a position in late '07 and just added a little more this morning. They seem to have the most dominant market position in their sector yet are getting know love.. Is this just fear of integrating the Grant Prideco deal? Would love to hear your thoughts on their business and where you think it is headed over the longer term.<BR/>Thanks!<BR/><BR/>All the best,<BR/><BR/>BrianBrianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08057108021087344795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-41513357782334494482008-05-06T11:19:00.000-04:002008-05-06T11:19:00.000-04:00Amazing how well DHI is holding up after pathetic earnings report. The Kool Aid is running deep and strong in the halls of wall street... a 1.3B quarterly loss for a company worth 5B? Hooray, buy buy buy!<BR/><BR/>You can only push your luck so far... how long you planning to hold this dog?shaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.com