Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Massey Energy (MEE) Flying on Higher Met Coal Pric...

Currently priced in1) light shallow recession we'l...

2008-04-04T17:15:00.000-04:00

Currently priced in
1) light shallow recession we'll be out of by Q3 2008
2) financial system has a few "kinks" to work out but the Fed has our back and we'll be fine by Q3 2008
3) What the Fed won't fix the federal government will
4) home prices start to bottom by summer
5) consumers will be fine by 2nd half 2008, back to their spending ways
6) inflation will go away as the US economy slows in the 2nd half - of course that is in direct contrast with points above re: economy growing by 2nd half but when you drink Kool Aid, you can have it both ways

While systematic financial risk is off the table, it will be offset through massive money printing and worse inflation. We will have greater forms of bailouts of homeowners I do agree with that. I think the main crux everyone is missing is the weakness in the Middle class consumer which still dominates the majority of spending. That weakness will be borne out month after month after month in the 2nd quarter and 3rd quarter and at some point the "2nd half recovery guys" will have to say "oops" and slash full year earnings.

This is a relatively temporary respite - I expect a long period of sideways within a large range. Don't buy the hype. Go walk around your local store and pull people aside (policemen, teachers, carpenters - normal people) and ask how they are doing financially. How that new car purchase in "2nd half 2008" is shaping up, etc.

Of course if you are a farmer or oil man or in the upper 5%, this is the time of your life. I'm talking about the other 80% of people. Which much of the economy is based upon.

See Dell job cuts, See Bear Stearns, See Home Depot. That's this week. Then come the financial layoffs throughout spring summer 2008 in the banking system. Then all the people who rely on the above mentioned people... and so it goes.... without jobs its quite hard to spend.

i'm starting to buy into your theory of "it's diff...

2008-04-04T16:51:00.000-04:00

i'm starting to buy into your theory of "it's different this time". the playbook has been when the overall market rallies, commodities sell off and vice versa. for the near term this market seems bullet proof. horrible jobs number, lets rally (please pass the kool-aid, extra sugar please). i even saw a segment on CNBC about how earnings estimates are still too high. of course if you see it on CNBC its already priced in.

it seems all the doom and gloom scenario that you have constantly pointed out are well publisized and dare i say it, has been discounted by the market (big iffy). if thats the case then what do you think will send this market another leg down?

I recommend giving your assets to a budding mutual...

2008-04-04T13:49:00.000-04:00

I recommend giving your assets to a budding mutual fund manager? ;)

oh just lovely. i exited this name a couple of da...

2008-04-04T12:30:00.000-04:00

oh just lovely. i exited this name a couple of days ago as i started getting caught up in this 'weekly rotational' mumbo jumbo crudd. up this week, down next week, no apparent reason. i feel like throwing my laptop out the window right now. argh