Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: The Google (GOOG) Gap

I will just say the consumer has not seen even 50%...

2008-07-18T09:32:00.000-04:00

I will just say the consumer has not seen even 50% of the costs that produecers are facing

chart the somewhat faulty PPI versus the very faulty CPI

so either margins will be hammered or the consumer is going to get a hammer to them

Unless oil gets back to 100 or below and stays there, this winter is going to be tough for those of us not living in AZ, NV, CA, FL or a warm weather state.

Hopefully gas is $3.25 or less then and food stabilizes. I can see the former, but not the latter.

Again my theme is food inflation takes over from energy inflation as the 2nd half and early 09 story. Lag effects.

Mark when I see CLF bidding for ANR, and the CHK c...

2008-07-18T09:29:00.000-04:00

Mark when I see CLF bidding for ANR, and the CHK ceo backing up the truck on his own stocks even though he bought 80% lower and has so much over the years, I start to realize why you just stick to picking good stock, and let the rest be noise.

NOw there is real kool aid on the street because everyone thinks the earnings can be beat easily, but they don't realize how high the estimates are for later in the year (and they may be raised because of beats)

ie: woooo KO, IBM beat wooooo, they beat by 12% even though currency gains were 13%.

do you think there's lag with oil's effect on our economy..like our economy may be running now as if oil was $90 (6 months lag)

I wonder how bad the lag is.. ie: perhaps the $120+ oil will come into effect later this year (with stuff like dow chemical) i guess that's why you're so bearish especially on the 2nd half.

BD,it is funny how this market works. Since Citi ...

2008-07-18T09:12:00.000-04:00

BD,

it is funny how this market works. Since Citi reported LAST (this AM) and it was a "great number" only 7B in write downs, the mood is up. If the order was reversed - Citi reported last night and Google, Merrill this morning the markets would be in freefall.

Human psychology. Human psychology.

Efficient markets. Efficient markets.

Yup.

Bill,
I have no idea. This past year has been unfortunate because one has to guess the market every day/week/month more than simply picking good stocks. Guessing sentiment which changes now by the hour is not my expertise. I will just pick good stocks and go from there.

I did say give it to the end of July/early August as these rotations usually take 5-10 days to play out in the past. So this would be day 4.

And remember, I've written a few times when gas hits $3.50 we'll hear about how the American consumer is "back"! First chirping about that already this AM on CNBC. So predictable.

Tyler, I don't consider VCLK to be a competitor to GOOG - it's actually been quite a poor performer the few times I've analyzed it to see if it was a worthwhile investment. I don't follow it that close now - just too many things to watch. It just has never performed in the time I've watched it.

Mark,I thought the beating VCLK took today after e...

2008-07-17T23:25:00.000-04:00

Mark,

I thought the beating VCLK took today after earnings was an extreme tip-off that GOOG might be in trouble. It doesn't surprise me a bit that GOOG is stumbling, considering the "gap" in GOOG's chart and the aforementioned VCLK earnings. Maybe it is just me, but I immediately thought GOOG was in trouble when VCLK tanked... Seemed like a very easy short, and I am confused how GOOG held up in the market despite the fact that VCLK is in the same business (or very closely related)....

Mark,I have a feeling this correction i commoditie...

2008-07-17T21:45:00.000-04:00

Mark,

I have a feeling this correction i commodities is going to be longer and painful and will scare out even some of the smart money who is used to buying on dips....this iteration must offer something different than the past 5 times.

Oil can become a downside momentum trade which will destroy a lot of other unrelated names like what you said nickel=corn=gold=oil=wheat=coal

Could get ugly tomorrow, w/ GOOG, MSFT, and OPEX. ...

2008-07-17T21:34:00.000-04:00

Could get ugly tomorrow, w/ GOOG, MSFT, and OPEX. Let's see if C can pull out a premarket surprise.

BD

sdk,hmm, so you mean there is something other than...

2008-07-17T17:52:00.000-04:00

sdk,

hmm, so you mean there is something other than the Reuters headline?

Hmm... interesting concept you have there. ;) So why do stocks tank or jump 20,30,40% within 15 seconds of a press release. I can only assume I am a very slow reader of the body of the press releases (ahem)

We've built a gambling culture - I mean the stock market has always been a gambling culture but its now set up for hyper speed gambling. Many solar stocks were only making gains based on the back of 40% of profits due to currency gains - no one cared - all we heard was "blowout!"

Same with IBM last Q, and again tonight.

Trigger happy fingers, press release out at 4:01 PM; all analysis done by 4:01:30 PM - this is the Ritalin generation on crack stock market.

No time for breathing or thinking. =)

A lot of the Google "miss" was actually due to int...

2008-07-17T17:40:00.000-04:00

A lot of the Google "miss" was actually due to interest income and higher taxes. Of course I'm not sure if that really matters since its only the "headline" number that counts this day in age.