tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post3906229683050198344..comments2008-07-31T19:36:33.622-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-86021271976090743912008-07-31T19:36:00.000-04:002008-07-31T19:36:00.000-04:00aa,<BR/><BR/>If energy prices retreat, and if you believe the analyst, then we should enter in another global boom which should push energy (and all commodities higher). At this point the world really is getting in between a rock and a hard place. In my mind the biggest danger to the commodity plays isn't oil dropping, but the $ strengthening. With the current shape of the US financial system I don't see the fed supporting a strong $ anytime soon.<BR/><BR/>I'm with Mark, about the current 'fair' value of oil. It may not be $150 today, but I can't imagine going back to $50. It's also hard to argue against the real 'fair' value continuing higher over time.Michaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14603027333434481007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-74427813991449889402008-07-31T17:56:00.000-04:002008-07-31T17:56:00.000-04:00Bold move on MEE. Good luck with the trade! CNX makes me a little nervous here.<BR/><BR/>BDBluedoghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13620622716492473197noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-20761157880241680042008-07-31T17:06:00.000-04:002008-07-31T17:06:00.000-04:00The guy in the tin foil hat next to me says yes very probable. <BR/><BR/>I think a good thesis got (pardon the word) bastardized by the hedge funds. Chindia growth is real, its true but its not worth a 100% gain since last August. Now part of that is due to Uncle Ben's free printing way and the sytamatic destruction of the dollar but the hot money tends to take any thesis and blow it way out of proportion.<BR/><BR/>I still think the long term trend is up, but where fair value is now is anyone's guess. Unfortunately companies who were signing contracts when crude was $65, $75, $85 are now being strung out to dry as oil retreats to $120. It is amazing to watch.<BR/><BR/>If you believe in 50% retracements, oil should correct to $110. (50% of the move from Aug to Jun) If you believe in conspiracy wouldn't it be funny to see oil back at $90 or so by Nov 1. ;)<BR/><BR/>We're really not that heavy into much having to do with crude. The problem is even global engineering stocks are being treated as if their profits depend on oil at a certain price or natural gas at a certain price.<BR/><BR/>Emotion trumps logic for now.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-1620693125237195822008-07-31T17:00:00.000-04:002008-07-31T17:00:00.000-04:00Mark<BR/><BR/>What about the possibility of a drop in oil and other energy prices similar to what happened right before the election of 2006.aahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994083931695660883noreply@blogger.com