tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post3846560237314453510..comments2008-10-21T16:47:42.422-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-15919902681047934342008-10-21T16:47:00.000-04:002008-10-21T16:47:00.000-04:00If you trace out the volatility on the 1 day chart today it was probably close to 10% again<BR/><BR/>full 3% round trip moves 3x? down, then up, then back down... sighTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-42540727407003745032008-10-21T13:17:00.000-04:002008-10-21T13:17:00.000-04:00There's alot of uncertainty in the earnings. That's something I agree with Cramer about, regarding these companies. Longer term, I think these will do great as their costs are falling, and the projects are merely delayed. But over the next year, could be in for a little chop. That uncertainty is weighing on them. this is a sector I just want to pick at, when the market is oversold on the daily and 60 min charts. That isnt right now....<BR/><BR/>Mark, the volatility is now shrinking to a mere 5% daily swing now... that's the first step to back to some confidence in stocks.. which is nice, since I can stop pretending the 15 min chart is a daily chart.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-63945405567485183872008-10-21T11:41:00.000-04:002008-10-21T11:41:00.000-04:00Perception is reality in the stock market. Real contracts don't matter as long as the perception is quarters of cancellations ahead. <BR/><BR/>While I expect oversold rallies along the way, the whole global commodity/growth complex will probably be in a rut until 6-9 months ahead of a global recovery. So next summer is the time to start picking them up for true buy and holds. But they should have some good trades in between now and thenTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-48662425398112526532008-10-21T11:37:00.000-04:002008-10-21T11:37:00.000-04:00The global engineering stocks just got estimated cut by GS due to project delays. However, JEC just got 2 contracts in the news today. Go figure. I'm waiting to see if the Jim Cramer technique of waiting until estimates get cut and PE skyrockets is when you should buy these stocks (anticipating an economic upswing).crappyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17601884181311375715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75931657626486793012008-10-21T10:56:00.000-04:002008-10-21T10:56:00.000-04:00It sort is part of that whole global growth/commodity space - buy one, buy them all. <BR/><BR/>We need to see a lot more improvement in credit markets to feel confidence - almost all the banks are simply relying on central banks, still. <BR/><BR/>The other problem for BUCY and JOYG is their input costs are still quite high but with steel perhaps coming down that will help. The stock has acted horribly considering 1/5th of its shares will soon be gone. If you have a 3 year horizon I like it here though.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-18633473015967160032008-10-21T10:35:00.000-04:002008-10-21T10:35:00.000-04:00Hey Mark,<BR/>Not long ago you were suggesting that joyg was now below $42 and a great buy. But, didn't act due to the lending freeze. Is it time to revisit that buy with joyg below 29 and the thaw that is beginning to set in?<BR/><BR/>Thanks!Link McGinnishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14017780928019089153noreply@blogger.com