Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Sector Rotation?

Well that's nice. Listen this could blossom into ...

2008-04-24T15:01:00.000-04:00

Well that's nice. Listen this could blossom into a bull market and as you know, anything can happen. Right now, today, the odds on play is that this is a bear market rally that will fizzle around the 200 d MA...maybe below or maybe above.

Why am I so certain that this is a bear market? Let's say that it isn't a launching pad for a new bull market. We have been in a bear market since Nov 30, 2007 (by my definition).

Now I am positioned long equities with about 50% index and sector exposure, 20% REIT, 20% commodity and 10% foreign. I expect the same thing to happen that happens every time; too many bulls and stocks don't go anywhere; this may take 3 -4 weeks from this point in time.

By the way, I went for the kettle chips instead of the cheesey popcorn!!

No I agree with youWe have gotten about 3 of these...

2008-04-24T14:46:00.000-04:00

No I agree with you

We have gotten about 3 of these rallies in 2008 so far. The "hopeful" early cycle rally of 5-8 days; setting up beautifully for the next leg down.

The real economy is really breaking down in some of the largest states of the union. Unfortunately most of our populace lives in FL, CA, MI, OH, etc instead of Iowa, Texas, Wyoming or Nebraska. If it were reversed I could buy the "let's not worry about those states" theory.

But again, stampeding herd of bulls is not something I want to stand in front. The news doesnt really matter to me as much as the reaction to the news. Today we had 2 awful homebuilder reports (last night) RYL and especially PHM. RYL is at least heavy in Texas so I have some hope for them. But to see PHM up 6% on their disaster along with today's news tells you Kool Aid is amuck. After this "cycle" plays out probably by end of next week or the week after. We go back to normal, and just continue with the same names and themes.

But each of those other 3 cycles I took a big hit and gave up a lot of performance as all the stuff I was in was trashed, and everything I was not in worked against my Ultrashorts, so I am going to a more aggressive stance to make the hit smaller this time around. I'll still lag. But we'll make it up on the other side in 5-10 days.

I hope you aren't making fun of me...I am not sure...

2008-04-24T14:31:00.000-04:00

I hope you aren't making fun of me...I am not sure; I generally don't have an opinion (regards to market direction) in the sense that most of what I do is already programmed; I read the news but don't act on it like you do.

But I will comment that 1) this is a bear market; 2) it is not unusual for prices to come back test the 200 day MA and on the INX that is at 1427.

It won't be different this time until it is.

Now time to get some cheesey popcorn!!

Hey Guy,You did not drink your Kool Aid this morni...

2008-04-24T14:20:00.000-04:00

Hey Guy,

You did not drink your Kool Aid this morning did you?

We are right back to the 1395 level
If 1400 breaks, away we go... 1430s would be the next area to go to

You can't keep a good market down. Everything will be fine in 6 months, didn't you hear?

It is still a bear market but if you are a trader ...

2008-04-24T13:57:00.000-04:00

It is still a bear market but if you are a trader this doesn't matter; the likely scenario is for prices to struggle around the 200 day MA which is fast approaching on the QQQQ and SPY; as you stated several weeks ago this will be just in time or coincide with the "all clear" calls. Enjoy while you can.