Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Reducing 2 Names

p.s. how do you come to the determination of S&P 1...

2008-01-24T16:36:00.000-05:00

p.s. how do you come to the determination of S&P 1100? Just curious. Looking at long term chart we have some support there at 1220 or so (summer 2006) and 1170 (fall 2005) and then 1140 (spring 2005) - we'd have to break all those to get to 1100, which takes us back to 2004 levels.

My concern is with the Fed funds rate below 3% and maybe going to 2.5% or so, (along with foreign central banks cutting later this year) we will be infusing the world with a lot of easy money and this creates yet another bubble somewhere. It won't be real estate .... This was part of my proposal for 13 Outlier Proposals for 2008, that in 2nd half 2008 equity markets could take on the liquidity and form new bubbles. Or maybe it will go to commodities. All this liquidity will need to find a home somewhere. We are just now in process of phase 1 of creating the next bubble... only question is "where".

Well the MA sell was not purely technical; I have ...

2008-01-24T16:30:00.000-05:00

Well the MA sell was not purely technical; I have other stocks that held 200 day and below 50 I am keeping. This is more a case of (if market mood is bad) MA could sell on some made up reason. But if mood is good, MA could go up 20%.

LDK, BCSI I find good value there even though technically they are in very bad shape so I am keeping those for now.

If/when we get to S&P 1410-1420 I will be more aggressively trimming and moving into short ETFs. We have potential to go to 1460 but I am not counting on it.

Would I add any longs above 1410? Possibly. I am not a market timer, I just try to take some off the table when things get extended. But right now we do appear to be in bear condition on index charts so until this changes I am going to have to change the mindset a bit versus past 4.5 years when we were in a bull. So I will probably be more aggressively selling spikes than I normally would. And think twice before adding longs once indexes reach a certain point.

The other possibility is we go sideways in range bound fashion for a while. In that scenario, the quality names can continue to go up, and the bad sectors down. This was typical of December. But we shall see. I don't think S&P 1270 was the bottom for the year. Or if it is, we should at least retest it. I don't know if we go to 1100, but who really knows. Until we begin making new highs over previous highs, I am going to remain in cautious mode and sell the rallies. But hopefully we see more rally first. Remind me to sell once we get close since I might get too close to the Kool Aid punch bowl. ;)

Hi mark,I can see this up leg is the B wave up to ...

2008-01-24T16:22:00.000-05:00

Hi mark,

I can see this up leg is the B wave up to may be 1384 or 1420. After that is the C wave down to may be 1110. I can see you sell the stock that hold 200 and go in up to 50 days resistance. But what about those that are clearly on the down trend like LDK, or BCSI? Do you plan to add any long, or just strickly ETF like SRS, skf.. what is your asset allocation when SPX at 1384 and 1420? Do you think we will get the C wave down after that?