Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Outsmarted Myself on Thornburg Mortgage (TMA)

hey mark for some reason im struggling to wrap my ...

2008-03-03T20:09:00.000-05:00

hey mark for some reason im struggling to wrap my brain aroudn this statement:

"...but the more Ben cuts, the more the dollar falls, and the more inflation gets stuck in our system, and this will continue to put pressure upward on mortgage rates...."

Could you explain to me why more fed rate cuts would cause mortgage rates to rise??

Yes, the whole idea was to have some Ying when the...

2008-02-28T12:58:00.000-05:00

Yes, the whole idea was to have some Ying when the markets Yangs... i.e. stuff that goes up when the market goes on its "housing, financial, retail" recovery binges. Since I have very little exposure to that. Obviously it would of been more profitable to just buy a dumb homebuilder. The whole concept makes me cringe - because it assumes we are going to be rip roaring 2nd half 2008 which goes my whole thesis. I think whats going to happen now is Q3 2008 is going to show GDP up, so this will cause a Q4 2008 rally, (due to rebate checks) and people saying the bottom is in. Then in early 2009 we are going to go into another fall as people will see it's a mirage. This is why this environment is so tricky. But it happens, thankfully its a 2% position but with Foster Wheeler and TMA in 1 week, I took hits on 5% of portfolio combined (I've added to FWLT since of course). So I am not having a happy week :) Especially since coal, fertilizer, and the like are doing nothing. I am unclear what exactly is driving the market up of late - nothing in my watch lists seems to be doing much except a few retailers. Something that I don't watch must be rallying hard.

Anyhow it happens. You have 50 long names, and you're going to take hits. I am just bugged by this one particularly because those folks who are speculating on home builders are doing better than me on this thesis! Grrrr!

Tough break on TMA. I've been watching it ever si...

2008-02-28T11:28:00.000-05:00

Tough break on TMA. I've been watching it ever since you recommended it but anything to do with housing and/or mortgages is very risky, IMO. Either are exposed to sudden spikes or drops and as an investor, there is much uncertainty. It amazes me how some of the homebuilders are doing in this market. I think it's all temporary.

-BD

Yes, but I seem to pay more attention to this fund...

2008-02-28T10:24:00.000-05:00

Yes, but I seem to pay more attention to this fund than my personal account of late :) Since this is the one people will be looking at to see if they should invest, so I have mixed feelings. Should of just bought the darn Pulte Homes or Ryland and drink Kool Aid!

Nice! You never lose taking profits!

2008-02-28T10:16:00.000-05:00

Nice! You never lose taking profits!

Raphael, purely lucky in personal account - I sold...

2008-02-28T10:05:00.000-05:00

Raphael, purely lucky in personal account - I sold yesterday when it spiked 7% on the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac news that they would get increased limit. My personal account is a lot more shorter term in terms of style than what I do here. Again, pure luck. I had a small gain, I took it. Better to be lucky than good.

Sorry for your loss! Tough times out there. I was ...

2008-02-28T10:02:00.000-05:00

Sorry for your loss! Tough times out there. I was just wondering if you sold the shares in your personal account since you stated yesterday to have the shares in both the fund and your personal account?