tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post3385857700947280687..comments2008-05-06T10:00:14.523-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-16914779554195265302008-05-06T10:00:00.000-04:002008-05-06T10:00:00.000-04:00So much for that CLF "dip"...<BR/>agree with shax, not worth the chasing - would of bought in premarket in $150s, but Marketocracy.com does not have that option :)<BR/><BR/>the steel stocks I really continue to marvel at... they are getting hit hard in profit margins but still go up. Makes little sense to me but oh well.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-68775958718839758852008-05-06T09:56:00.000-04:002008-05-06T09:56:00.000-04:00**CLF - Its only down to where it opened yesterday... ? 158**<BR/><BR/>It's up 2%, those of you dying to buy some, you can have my 2000 shares, I just sold them, I think the stock price has gone way ahead of where the earnings are. Too close to bubble territory for my liking.shaxmatisthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07220757563758396222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-18243125663476409752008-05-06T09:19:00.000-04:002008-05-06T09:19:00.000-04:00BD,<BR/>I haven't really been following the exchanges as much - that is such a 2006-2007 story ;) They seem to have a lost a lot of mojo. You'd think the volatility of 08 would of been a boon, but not the stock prices. ICE might be showing some life finally.<BR/><BR/>Jeff, you will not find in 3 decades probably another opportunity like potash - I am not saying coal is the same. It is very easy to look back now and say "wow this fertilizer is so obvious" but a year ago no one was saying it. All I am saying with coal is the earnings potential is completely missed by the street and as estimates go up, the stocks will follow and hence you can replace "fertilizer" with "coal". But the production or moat around coal is nothing like potash. As for your timing, you've been reading the blog for a while and I talk about coal every week since September :)<BR/><BR/>sliman,<BR/>I've done a few good trades on refiners every year for a while now. They are not investments to me, just trades because they are cyclical not secular. However this year has been a disaster. I've commented on them in the past - probably can search for the label for Valero or Frontier for earlier comments. Until crack spreads open up for more than 2-3 weeks they just cannot make money. They have been decimated so I don't know how much lower they can go but if crude goes to $130 I suppose lower they go. The problem is their input is global in nature and their output is domestic in nature - we are seeing demand destruction here in their output so their pricing power is a bit limited.<BR/><BR/>Jeffrey, havent had time to look @ CLF. I doubt anything they said or did changes the long term story. Its only down to where it opened yesterday... ? 158 - doesnt look like any disaster to me just from the price action.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-51944625878541924382008-05-06T07:24:00.000-04:002008-05-06T07:24:00.000-04:00Mark and Jeff:<BR/>I think you may get your wish on Cleve Cliffs -- they reported disappointing earnings and lower than expected revenues last evening...<BR/><BR/>after the pre-earnings runup, its probably gonna see a sharp sell-off, but is the earnings miss a buying oppy or a sign of trouble ahead for CLF???JeffreyChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03236685815465076545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-43295351409196290492008-05-06T05:59:00.000-04:002008-05-06T05:59:00.000-04:00Tradermark<BR/>Sounds like you think refiners are a waste of time. I am holding a little Valero. Would you dump it?slimanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02885545198067762872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-90587022403653410422008-05-05T21:40:00.000-04:002008-05-05T21:40:00.000-04:00I'm hoping CLF misses too.. I've been waiting forever for some type of REAL pullback. The last one, if you even call it that, lasted for about 2 hours. I find myself more underweight commodities in general, that I would otherwise like.. but I'm resisting paying up. I wonder if even when that correction comes, will it be at a higher price still? The 50 day EMA's are all moving up really fast. <BR/><BR/>Gold has always been a trade imo. I think we need to see another leg down before the risk:reward matches some of the other commodity stocks. But it is starting to look a little more interesting. <BR/><BR/>Coal. I did some work over the wkend on coal, and I see what you are talking about. (aka the comparison to fertilizer a year ago) I still dont think it is *quite* as compelling as fertilizer story was last year, but right now, offers a better risk:reward. Totally true about the political risk surrounding ag stocks. But coal has supply issues which may be temporary. Hard to say, but as long as contracts are getting signed at higher prices, this is telling us something about YoY comps and of course, analyst estimate bumps in the near future. <BR/><BR/>As I got all hyped up to get ready to buy some coal stocks this morning, I was disheartened to see ANR up 10%, dragging the others up kicking and screaming.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-63223641621389754282008-05-05T19:05:00.000-04:002008-05-05T19:05:00.000-04:00NYX reports tomorrow. Should be interesting given record volume at ICE, CME, NMX, etc. Key issues will be operating expenses, market share, and synergy progress (w/ Euronext). We took a real beating last earnings.<BR/><BR/>-BDBluedoghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13620622716492473197noreply@blogger.com