tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post3030555712979424371..comments2008-05-04T13:29:54.061-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-56482766064889593402008-05-04T13:29:00.000-04:002008-05-04T13:29:00.000-04:00Well most have high concentration of customers in Far East or Middle East where credit is no needed; i.e. they actually have cash.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-88430572548501710042008-05-03T11:26:00.000-04:002008-05-03T11:26:00.000-04:00That sector is just acting really bad. Perhaps smaller firms supporting these larger ones, are having problems with credit, and the effect is trickling in, in one way or another. I wouldnt be surprised if that were true for projects in europe or the US. Either that, or it's perception. But the sector has had more blow ups than in really should. They may also be having raw cost/labour problems. I know BUCY had that problem, but for them, the bulk of future demand is still to be contracted. <BR/><BR/>I don't want to bet against the industry, but I'm hesitant to put on positions of significance. I actually think that they will do better, in the late part of a early cycle rally, as that would cut down on the 'perception' problem. (regardless if it is true or not)Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-38019822682405987442008-05-02T12:23:00.000-04:002008-05-02T12:23:00.000-04:00Yes<BR/>I took a bit off today. Earnings next week.<BR/><BR/>If it was just CBI I would be ok, but we had both CBI and MDR screw up.<BR/><BR/>Now the question is, FWLT has very low expectations since they were hammered on their last earnings. If you look at companies with low expectations - ie. restaurants or retailers - as long as they say they plan to be in business for another 3 quarters their stocks g up 20% overnight. So the wildcard is I don't know the expectation level for FWLT... it might be very low. <BR/><BR/>It also has already sold off hard on the CBI shrapnel. But I did take a bit off today; if it pops going into earnings I'll probably take a bit more off going into earnings. <BR/><BR/>My holdings in the right tab are not real time - sometimes they have 2-3-4 day lag... just fyi.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-48087619697530416462008-05-02T12:17:00.000-04:002008-05-02T12:17:00.000-04:00you have big bet on <BR/>FWLT 3.0%. Is there an earning risk here like CBI?Wanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04490150668710827751noreply@blogger.com