tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post2874833970304822547..comments2008-12-17T22:18:57.788-05:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-17520784274150612552008-12-17T22:18:00.000-05:002008-12-17T22:18:00.000-05:00Well mark, the only way we don't go down is via inflation.<BR/><BR/>So in terms of real wealth the markets are guaranteed to go lower (I think all your posts clearly outline that- our economy is garbage). Nominally, not guaranteed<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>But what I have been looking at is how to profit from this via a spread type thing.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I feel that what we can see is that ultimately the DOW:gold ratio must go down. Assuming gold is inflation.<BR/><BR/>So long gold short markets would work. I mean if you shorted the market this week into the fed meeting (raises hand) you got killed, because BB is printing like mad, but gold saved you.<BR/><BR/><BR/>I had gold so technically I didn't lose with FAZ. <BR/><BR/>All I am saying is that you can mitigate downside risk to shorting when BB inflates by longing commodities.<BR/><BR/>I hate FAZ...it was up less than SKF today % wise...that s 100% unacceptable.i got rid of it immediately, first time trading that. Now I know why you just stick with SKF.<BR/><BR/>http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/dow-gold-ratio-april08_image004.gif<BR/><BR/>we're at like Dow worth 10oz now.<BR/><BR/>half way through secular bear market for stocks bull market for commodities. we saw a 75% decline in DOW/GOLD from the top near 40oz, and another 75% decline will take us to 2-3 ox gold for DOW.<BR/><BR/>just a thought<BR/><BR/>It is funny because while fools cheer BB for sending markets up like 2% since fed meeting they don't realize the dollar lost like 5% of its value so they LOST wealth.<BR/><BR/>BTW: I hear Peter schiff is running for senator in CT, I need confirmation though.billman101289http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-68080936575339474862008-12-17T19:16:00.000-05:002008-12-17T19:16:00.000-05:00you know who else holds lots of CRE?<BR/><BR/>insurance companies<BR/><BR/>that, combined with annuities structured to operate in 6% ROI environments, and underfunded pensions.....<BR/><BR/>HIG is a gift here (to short)<BR/><BR/>MET and PRU alsonullpointerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17897635156865956509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-65536434572631889852008-12-17T15:58:00.000-05:002008-12-17T15:58:00.000-05:00crappy, the problem is Ben Bernanke is now backstopping the entire market - hence its hard to ever go down again ;)<BR/><BR/>Piyush, about 2 entries earlier some readers made some great comments about the compounding nature of these instruments. They are sort of like options with time decay. <BR/><BR/>If I were not seeing a market that insists on going up I would not be too worried about it; the problem is everything is so monolithic - everything up, or everything down. We will have a few large victories in 2009 in SRS, but only when some staggering news or debt defaults come out. I agree 100% on the P.E. side as I broke out yesterday. I think 2009 is the year PE gets exposed big time.<BR/><BR/>Honestly I would not be surprised to hear of some large retail bankruptcies by February when this Christmas season and Jan gift card season is shown to be a loser's situation for many. If the ETF was better constructed it would feel better to wait, however. <BR/><BR/>I'll bail at $48 is necessary with egg residue on face at the ready.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-89858363257378353572008-12-17T15:50:00.000-05:002008-12-17T15:50:00.000-05:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>CRE fundamentals are declining by the day each week (rising cap rates, illiquidity, expiring debt, increasing vacancies, go on &amp; on). But again, who cares about fundamentals in this market. The big shoes is yet to drop in this arena ie, private equity - the massive holders of CRE, who went on a buying frenzy in the last three years and bought anything from everything. <BR/>I just hope (i sound like a dreamer now) this thing bounces back and I would love to get out of my investment that I started in the low $80&#39;s. <BR/>-PiyushPiyushhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06064909149208598935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-36310457643714615772008-12-17T15:41:00.000-05:002008-12-17T15:41:00.000-05:00Now I feel like I'm in better company :) I've been buying into SRS and TWM (holding alright compared to SRS) this week. So I'm a bit early but we'll see...crappyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17601884181311375715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-75563216246878230222008-12-17T15:27:00.000-05:002008-12-17T15:27:00.000-05:00SRS might go to $3 if 940-950 is hit ;)<BR/><BR/>See a few weeks ago when you were telling me about the guy who turned $5K to $1 million just by playing SKF since it's so 'easy' - that's when I get nervous. nothing is easy.<BR/><BR/>If it was we'd all be sipping fruity drinks on sandy beaches.<BR/><BR/>At least Ben inflicted pain during market hours - in 2007 and early 2008 they used to do stuff pre market. So you can only fault yourself<BR/><BR/>I hear Fonzie on his water skis... I must go now.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-64387751914619956722008-12-17T15:20:00.000-05:002008-12-17T15:20:00.000-05:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>940-950 should be a brick wall.<BR/><BR/>I think you are playing the odds with this casino ;)<BR/><BR/><BR/>PS: never hold FAZ going into a fed meeting (source: personal experience)billman101289http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.com