Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Bookkeeping: Weekly Changes to Fund Positions Week...

Hi MarkWell, i read your blog daily. I am not post...

2008-07-07T00:30:00.000-04:00

Hi Mark

Well, i read your blog daily. I am not posting much, because i don't have much to contribute. I am sure most people are very surprise with the Jan drop (the speed), so this round, a lot of people are still remember the 2001-2003 period and not too commit. Therefore, it hard to see a big bounce now. The problem with that is, from a technical chart stand point, it can not create a positive divergence on the chart (ie at march) so people can trust the rebound will last more then a week. In the mean time, this thing just grind out, killing both bull and bear in process. (remember 2001, 2002 period?) We are in the middle of it. I believe this thing will last a few year at least, since financial sector is still a cornerstone of the market. So, i am more of a short sale guy, i don't play long until long term chart flash a buy signal, in the mean time keep selling resistance is the game. That's one of the reason, i visit your site (in post comment) at triple bottom. Don't worry, after this one we won't have another triple bottom for a long time.
Let switch gear on another subject, commodity boom, how long would it last? when is dollar find bottom? when is the world wide economy follow US and slow down? at that time definitely we will see an end. If you look at the chart, MOS is way extended, a clear 5 wave up since sep 2006. Sure it can run to 240, but let see if it can hold 110 first. Basicly, i let the chart tell me where it take. But this time, it much more dangerous then March to buy early. DE is a warning sign, just like DRYS. For the coal sector, I am as puzzle as you are, can coal run like that without crude at 145? no way in hell. Can crude go to 200 something like some guys predict? Doubtful, we would be at WW3 by then. For the candidate to outperform your pick, i will think of one when SPX is at 1040, now it way too early, and probably by late sept, oct time frame. In the mean time, i have no long positions and i sleep well.

Hi Hieunguy,I do remember you and I agree it is re...

2008-07-06T21:13:00.000-04:00

Hi Hieunguy,

I do remember you and I agree it is remarkably similar to January in the chart formation. I do remember our discussions and you were definitely correct. Aside from the chart what reminds me of January is a huge move down, with little to no bounce - I remember thinking "this thing must bounce at some point" then, and it did not.

I am not "all in" contrary to what you are saying...

I think 1225 is quite probable on the S&P and if that breaks 1170s. It would be nice if we got a nice 3-5% rally first, but this might be a pipe dream with how tepid the bounces have been. But I do agree - this is beginning to smell a lot like Jan 08 the longer it goes. I think in January 08 I was "all in" at this point and that's when we had some smashed over the head with beer bottles in terms of performance.

Swing traders should not be following me ;) Mutual fund investors should. Hah.

p.s. I was correct on I'd take MOS in January in $70s versus any position you'd offer ;) ( you never answered with your candidate) It went up almost 100%+ from there.

Glad to see you are around or do you only visit at triple bottoms? :)

hi Mark,I have not post for quite sometime, but i ...

2008-07-06T21:01:00.000-04:00

hi Mark,

I have not post for quite sometime, but i can not resist to say this is the same tripple bottom at 1370 in early january that i say won't hold, and look like you already deploy up to 3% cash remain. Can this tripple bottom at 1260 hold? doubtful, with the way the market act. We have no fed to the rescue this time, i can only see no bounce in financial yet, and the general keep getting wack to raise margin as market go down. Wake me up when we are below 1200. I am looking for down more then 40 sp point and 90/10 down to up volume.
For those who follow trader mark, he has 60 long position, his fund is long only fund, he can not panic and sell ( there is no withdraw like a regular fund). So he can be early, (most of the time early), but for swing trader and follow mark pick, it can be deadly for your portfolio. Anyway, i appreciate your blog and find it right on the money most of the time, except the call for all in at this stage. The best time to follow you is when we start retrace and clear change in trend.