Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Sector Strength: Deep Sea Oil Drillers

Hi one guy, let me know if that continues to be an...

2007-09-10T11:45:00.000-04:00

Hi one guy, let me know if that continues to be an issue (the slow loading of the page) - it seems to load pretty fast on my end, but with all the 3rd party sites/links I assume it slows down to some degree.

I am pretty torn on WFR. I have been bearish on it for a while - long term I am an extreme bear as I believe a flood of polysilicon will hit the market by 2009/2010 as China overproduces polysilicon producers.... its a relatively simple production with plenty of raw material (sand) in the world - it just takes time to ramp up new facilities. Near term, WFR could still have some decent moves but this is the age old arguement in this stock... will new competition drive down prices? and when does that begin? Or is the end market for solar going to grow so much that all this new production can just be absorbed etc? With polysili prices increasing to such a dramatic degree in past few years, one must ask has the easy money been made and are we at the tail end (tail end being relative, it could be another 18-24 months before we see a serious adjustment in prices) - or still in the middle innings.

But all those same comments also apply to the solar cell makers and even the integrated PV producers at the top of the chain. This is why the R&D and continued efficiency improvements are things to watch. While its relatively easy to get into the game, doing so profitably at these prices of polysilicon is proving to be elusive for the smaller fry like CSIQ, CSUN, SOLF. With that said polysilicon is 65-75% the cost of goods for the Chinese PV makers so if that just drops in half (which would still be pricing WELL above 2002/2003 levels) it makes it a much more profitable entity. Also relationship, established customer base, etc built by these early entrants to the space will be beneficial. But again, many moving parts and an arena we have to watch consistently to see how things play out.

Hi Tradermark -- Nice idea for a blog, good luck. ...

2007-09-10T11:08:00.000-04:00

Hi Tradermark -- Nice idea for a blog, good luck. I agree with you entirely on the deep sea drillers, a great long term trend of high demand if you get the most capable rigs. I hold SeaDrill, which is a newer competitor for Transocean et al, and am looking into whether the GSF/RIG combo provides a nice entry point.

While I've sold some of my position, I still prefer MEMC Electronics or the other polysilicon plays to the wafer makers in solar right now -- it's starting to look like the barriers to entry for solar cell makers aren't that high, they're coming out of the woodwork, but demand for polysilicon remains very high and might even keep up with continued supply increases from all the big manufacturers.

By the way, don't know if it's just me but something on the left sidebar appears to be hanging up your site before the posts load. Took over a minute.

Cheers

yep we discussed that yesterday or few days ago - ...

2007-09-07T17:27:00.000-04:00

yep we discussed that yesterday or few days ago - those 2 are cell makers which seems to be the focus now - I hope LDK comes crashing. I bought an initial position the day I sold YGE for the fund but it was just a starter position, and it promptly rallied 20% in days. Ugh. I owned LDK (in personal account in the $20s) If only I held.

What is your typical holding period? I am generally a more active trader than this fund I run here. I want to see if I can do what mutual funds do with their limitations, but better. See the Kenneth Heebner funds in my left column of the blog - he is one to model after - he only has from 20-40 positions and he goes heavy into sectors - just amazed at how he calls sectors so well; he was long investment banks in Q1 and Q2 but sold right at the right time - if you google him - he just has been so good for so long - really admire his skill!

as for the stock market, never fear, 75 basis points cut by Dec 07 will make $600K homes affordable again! ;)

In the solar sector, LDK and JASO both showed cont...

2007-09-07T17:22:00.000-04:00

In the solar sector, LDK and JASO both showed continued strength. We'll see what next week brings though. US-related/based stocks are looking pretty weak overall right now. How much of that will bleed over to other countries is the question.