tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post2436113098368744848..comments2008-05-01T12:58:20.150-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-22611325869636951172008-05-01T12:58:00.000-04:002008-05-01T12:58:00.000-04:00ag and coal<BR/>iron close 3rd<BR/><BR/>copper gold could drop 40% for all I know<BR/><BR/>problem is they are trading everything as a group, you can see in todays action. Every chart looks identical no matter what subsector. <BR/>I'm afraid same on the way up. Only gold separated early.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-4578082528005620342008-05-01T12:55:00.000-04:002008-05-01T12:55:00.000-04:00I agree with that.. but I'm thinking a little longer term. Say, 6 months. Which industry might outperform within the commodities arena? Do you think any of the various industries still have upside news? I'm thinking only iron ore does. That being said, the next commodities rally might not make significantly higher highs without a catalyst.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-81206753306415427042008-05-01T12:48:00.000-04:002008-05-01T12:48:00.000-04:00Catalysts will be meaningless. This is big money switching allocation. When they are done, they will switch back. The news flow will be insignificant. Just have to wait for the tide to reverse.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-21206468867772449002008-05-01T12:43:00.000-04:002008-05-01T12:43:00.000-04:00Hi Mark,<BR/><BR/>I've also begun to add bits and pieces of commodities today. (ATW and AGU) But they still look like we could get prices 10% lower. Regardless, of the sectors (ag, iron, coal, natgas, oil), do any have upcoming catalysts that might move the sector more than another? I liked the Ags because they had price increases coming, as with the iron ore co's.. but I think alot of that in the short term is priced in. That is, we won't be seeing more price bumps of major significance in the next little while. Perhaps still in iron ore... I find it interesting that those companies have not really corrected. CLF (save for today's action) did not pull back along with the others. And anecdotally, from the BUCY call, there was still chatter about steel prices and possible negotiations in that area. At least, that's how I interpreted it.Risk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.com