Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: More Fed Actions!

oh yeah, do you see the price of oil being correla...

2008-03-17T14:55:00.000-04:00

oh yeah, do you see the price of oil being correlated to the success of the coal and nat gas names? i didn't think it would be but they seem to be trading in unison.

it seems the fate of the market hangs in the balan...

2008-03-17T14:47:00.000-04:00

it seems the fate of the market hangs in the balance of every FED meeting. the FED cuts big tomorrow, you get a short term rally that is probably led by commodities, maybe even financials. they disappoint and you get a SELL OFF in everything (except the dollar). i want to stay short the USO as oil is due for a pull back but i really can't see the FED disappointing tomorrow. they are in a tought spot. it seems to have any success in this market that you have to anticipate what the FED is going to do.

You are learning fast! Must be reading some good ...

2008-03-17T14:14:00.000-04:00

You are learning fast! Must be reading some good blogs. ;)

That's part of it

Another part is when things really get bad people think the world will implode and no one will need coal, oil, food etc so they sell off

The last piece is much is priced in dollars and when people think apocoplyse is coming then they think ECB and other banks must cut rates to help prop up the sad US dollar. Which in theory would hurt commodities priced in dollars. Thats short term thinking. Long term thinking is creation of paper money only makes hard assets more worthwhile.

So today gold miners go down while gold is actually up. Or was up strongly before profit taking. ANyhow I am buying back some gold exposure and the DBA.

Also you asked about coal - TODAY is why I did not go whole heart into coal Friday but I added alot of exposure today on this 10% across the board sell off.

Patience... something that I try to remember all the time. I always like to jump in at the first drop, but that is bull market thinking, not bear market. Can't say today is the low but I got many names 5% (this AM) and now 10% cheaper (this PM) than Friday.

Once things return to normal the same groups will go up. But I am sure we will have a 4-7 days period where retail, financials, and homebuilders pop! Again you will begin to see patterns. Remember late January when all those consumer/financial groups ran up a ton? I wrote a piece "Time to change strategy?" because none of the fertilizer, coal, commodities were ramping but instead the "junk". That lasted all of 2 weeks before the next round of carnage. I expect the same coming in the near future. Then once that is done, we go back to bull markets in things that deserve it...

surprising that the commodity names are getting ki...

2008-03-17T14:06:00.000-04:00

surprising that the commodity names are getting killed as the FED will probably cut 100 basis points tomorrow. looks like the hedgies are taking profits where they can.