Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: What Happens if America Returns to a Historical Sa...

all the line comment lines is good i am agree with...

2010-10-26T08:57:27.356-04:00

all the line comment lines is good i am agree with the write.
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Savings Calculator

This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned ...

2010-10-12T14:16:57.046-04:00

This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are unanimous and needs to be appreciated by everyone

o The above thought is smart and doesn’t require a...

2010-10-12T14:15:33.496-04:00

o The above thought is smart and doesn’t require any further addition. It’s perfect thought from my side.

The above thought is smart and doesn’t require any...

2010-10-12T14:14:29.479-04:00

The above thought is smart and doesn’t require any further addition. It’s perfect thought from my side.

VERY Good points. These are things few people are...

2009-05-10T01:11:00.000-04:00

VERY Good points. These are things few people are catching.

In my estimate he natural savings rate in a modern society is about 20-30% or so with weak pension/national health schemes and 10-20% with stronger ones.
If/when we do reach the optimum conditions We will have to have to retire (the old pay off the house, avoid all debt horde cash, have no more kids than you can afford routine ) the global economy will collapse on itself do to lack of demand.

You can kiss any job making autos or expensive high tech toys , or services goodbye.

The only way out of the trap is wage inflation to the amount of Current Wage + Inflation (which may be a negative number) + Incurred Debt + Savings Rate -- a sustained 30% above current wages for 5 years with a tapering off to maybe 15% above current after that should do it

Optionally we can move to some kind of social democracy /social credit system with little US military spending , a heavy social safety net and short work times --

There are social consequences for either choice of course but either way unless people have more money to spend -- growth is finished.

Hey there, I read your blog and keep updated every...

2008-12-30T04:32:00.000-05:00

Hey there, I read your blog and keep updated every day and I find your "Mutual Fund" to be very interesting.

I would like your opinion on my following statement:

The possible success of Quantitative Easing would mean an important shift in investor psychology.

After all, by that time- interest rates are low, corporate health has improved, borrowing is increasing, inflation is kicking in, regulatory standards are likely to have improved, trust is low, USD is weak, government is intending to spend more, tremendous growth opportunity in emerging markets... the situation looks very similar to that back in 2003, just that the National Debt would have increased, the T-Bill yields are much lower and the Fed is holding a huge amount of toxic assets and a huge huge budget deficit.

By this time, I believe that the Bulls would have the upper hand and would state all of the above as bullish reasons to get long, while the Bears would highlight the weakness in the US national debt, the Fed's balance sheet & its relation to the USD, the weakness in emerging markets amongst the political rumblings of Russia and China (they hold a lot of US T-Bills) and lastly, a huge Social Security and Medicare bills coming.

Given the deeply entrenched culture of "Stocks always go up in the long run", an obsession with Obama, a belief in technology, mankind's will, evidenced by a trail blazing China.... it is likely that the bulls will win.

It is possible that the double top on the S&P 500 becomes a triple top- the first top resulting from the NASDAQ/Tech bubble, 2nd from the globalization/housing/credit bubble and the 3rd resulting from the exploding budget deficits of the many govts around the world as one problem leads to the next and ultimately "Boom!".

to a large extent these savings rates are understa...

2008-12-29T21:45:00.000-05:00

to a large extent these savings rates are understated. They never count capital gains and I'm not really sure if it accurately accounts for retirement savings.

For example, I could spend 100% of my take home pay but I've got over 12% of my salary going into a 401K. Then that portfolio has yearly gains (assuming we return to a historical market). I'd easily end up with a $1M+ portfolio and I think the govt report would say that I never saved a dime.

So basically the govt report says Americans don't save but most of us have substantial assets.

The protestant ethic of deferral of gratification...

2008-12-29T20:09:00.000-05:00

The protestant ethic of deferral of gratification has died. Consumer discretionary purchasing will dupe uneducated and addictive personalities hardest.
Higher end retailers are in deep trouble because their educated consumers finally seem to get it now.
I just heard on the radio today that in Fairfield County Connecticut pedicures and facial retailers are off by 70-80%.
Vanity loses in a bad recession.
Buy just what you really need and what grows in value and not what loses its value.
I did not realize our abundance of retail space.
This means that eventually they will need to be converted to an alternate use as some of these will become vacant strip malls.