tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1912574215710701791..comments2008-10-13T17:38:50.717-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-65600124073210719302008-10-13T17:38:00.000-04:002008-10-13T17:38:00.000-04:00I don't think last week's sell off was due to fear; more likely a mass liquidation to raise capital. With the Fed/ central bankers providing a back stop, why sell unless you have to?<BR/><BR/>Other point relates to Fed's and Treasury roles in the volatility; for 12 months now the Fed has been juicing the markets giving people the opportunity to sell at higher prices; think about it for a moment; they didn't come into the room and yell, "fire" and as public officials we wouldn't expect them too; in essence they have tried to talk the markets down; they kind of lost control the last two weeks but that is what today's juicing was about. I suspect we are still a ways a way from any meaningful economic recovery here and in the rest of the world. Markets should turn higher before the economy does. Of course, CNBC and others would have you believe that this is how bull markets start - a lot selling and then a reversal. But the bear won't be slain so easily.Guyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09198161809721597881noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-37170636526308739082008-10-13T16:30:00.000-04:002008-10-13T16:30:00.000-04:00Thats right. I have done the same thing in my portfolio since all the Ag stocks have been treated the same lately. I basically kept the strongest two: MOS and POTbadrkhanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02634033509949856699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-80274643643792313422008-10-13T16:27:00.000-04:002008-10-13T16:27:00.000-04:00Hi badrkhan,<BR/><BR/>I think I wrote that in a post here - of MOS, POT, and CF I wanted to eliminate one and CF was the candidate due to the nitrogen exposure. Obviously its been oversold so along with Foster Wheeler, I will probably be selling CF tomorrow. It does have $22 in cash but I can get the same bounce in MOS or POT.<BR/><BR/>RMJ, Kool Aid man works.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-65652527575034911362008-10-13T16:14:00.000-04:002008-10-13T16:14:00.000-04:00we put our kool aid rally caps on last friday - fear has morphed into greedRisk Manager Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14994763012317049832noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-87864720314750765532008-10-13T16:10:00.000-04:002008-10-13T16:10:00.000-04:00One of the positions that you should reduce or totally eliminate is CF. Prices for some of its products have fallen by 50% over the past couple of months and they have not seen a bottom yet. Check out the prices for Ammonia and Uria in this report<BR/><BR/>http://www.fertilizerworks.com/html/market/TheMarket.pdf<BR/><BR/>DAP (Phosphate) prices are a little lower but input costs for producing DAP are lower as well which means that the real DAP price is still at the same level. This is good news for MOS. <BR/><BR/>I think CF will miss expectations this quarterbadrkhanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02634033509949856699noreply@blogger.com