Yep, we could be entering a late August stage wher...

2008-04-01T16:32:00.000-04:00

Yep, we could be entering a late August stage where we rallied for 2 months. Not sure if it will last that long or even that we are entering that sort of move. But this was the first higher high in a long time.

If we have a bad labor report and the market absorbs it, then you have to turn bullish despite the bad financial writedowns coming and the lowered guidance I see coming in earnings season.

I still think this is a very risky market but for now have to be open minded to upside. A less risk averse time will be when both commodities and banks can rally - there is no reason they cannot both go up together. They used to ;)

The manic behaviour in the stocks between commodit...

2008-04-01T15:37:00.000-04:00

The manic behaviour in the stocks between commodities/early cycle, i believe is fueled more by quasi-playbook moves. It almost seems like the 2 sectors are negatively correlated. but im sure you've noticed too by now, that the commodities rally immediately after the early cycle stocks. It's been happening since Aug, and its getting faster and faster between 'waves' so to speak. It's almost as if the big money is racing to see who can run to the other side of the boat fastests, and the boat just swings wildly. That being said, if we do get a "higher high!!!" then its perhaps a shift back to the post Aug low wave, where the time between shifts will be longer, as this would constitute a longer move in the early cycle. If that's the case, and add in the kool aid effect over the next 6 months, then I still think we'll see good pullbacks where you can play along with the crowd in the same style you use for the Ags.. buying on the swings down and selling into any major resistance. 1400 looks like the next spot where the boat gets rocked.

Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Dare I Say It? A Higher High?

Yep, we could be entering a late August stage wher...

The manic behaviour in the stocks between commodit...