tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1811908454486592177..comments2008-07-25T19:34:00.426-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-40368477746534556082008-07-25T19:34:00.000-04:002008-07-25T19:34:00.000-04:00i know cramer has been absolutely pathetic lately..but one thing he was right about back in march with regards to the AG and commodity stocks...was that people wrongly said the run was done because the charts looked like the stocks were rolling over (see POT chart) and because the charts looked bad there was so much negativity, and then soon enough these stocks took out new highs.<BR/><BR/>I think people are saying commodities are done because the charts look bad (ie: busting through 200 EMA's) but who knows..they tend to come roaring back when we least expect it..which is why it is prudent to keep decent exposure as you are doing.<BR/><BR/>I just wanted to say that i think the negativity is exacerbated by the charts acting as if the move is done so that the technicians even turn negative after the "fundamental" guy have went negative...now when everyone becomes negative don't we bottom?? <BR/><BR/>who knows i guess thats why its a free market (excluding invisible hand) ;)soccerbill8http://openid.aol.com/soccerbill8noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-53289092304925622702008-07-25T15:03:00.000-04:002008-07-25T15:03:00.000-04:00Q, yes this is generally what I am doing with my top names - coals and ags. I am not closing them wholesale.<BR/><BR/>We'll see what next week brings. I just dont think unless you scaled in very well you made money on your positions this week unless you were totally out of the positions coming into the week because Tue/Wed were brutal. And you said you wont be out of the positions. Etc.<BR/><BR/>I am up on those stakes but lost money on them all this week I believe.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-91468101776116683962008-07-25T14:45:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:45:00.000-04:00My bad Mark, you are not closing MEE I miss read the openingQhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14433765635925628922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-10466951483180952002008-07-25T14:38:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:38:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>What I wrote: I had raised cash til Monday and started buying, got my ass kicked, tues ,wed, and half of thursday, paid off today, raised cash (sold 25%) and waiting for pull back, to redeploy. I trade within my stocks. Hoping to sell higher and buy lower once I find a set of stocks I like the Macro and Micro funde's in, then I see how they act in their upper and lower bands, trendlines etc.<BR/><BR/>You like Mosaic and so have I for a couple of years. Every time it went down I remembered my internet stocks crashing march of 2000, so I took some off, let it settle down and then bought in peicemeal.<BR/><BR/>As for selling today is different than closing an entire positon. I wont do that until the funde's change. Like if POT reported a bad quarter and the stock went down err wait the stock did go down so I bought more at 190 yesterday. They raised guidance for heavens sake, acting better today. ACI tripled earnings MEE will be awesome too as will ANR. Im in all those names.Qhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14433765635925628922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-35544688017889625722008-07-25T14:22:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:22:00.000-04:00Link, the GFA chart is actually a textbook easy example. I'd be selling up into that 34 level to 35 (which I have been)<BR/><BR/>If it breaks up over and above resistance levels (multiple ones at 35s) then it's looking in good shape<BR/><BR/>But nothing works 100% of the time, or 80% of the time. And you can get whipsawed by stocks that constantly move up and down around an average because your selling as it breaks support and buying as it pushes back above, but sometimes stocks do that for months on end and you get nowhere.<BR/><BR/>Roses, how is CEF tracking versus GLD. I usually like miners because you get some extra volatility but just had back luck with this one this time around.<BR/><BR/>Thats a good play with MOS. Obviously I can only do 1/2 of that trade with my set up and not the other half.<BR/><BR/>Q- you confuse me. You said you "raised cash" implying today. meaning you sold today into the rally? But then yuo say its a buying oppt.<BR/><BR/>The truth of the matter is it really doesnt matter what I (or you) think. None of us knows if its the correct move. If they rally from here you will be correct; if they do not I will be correct.<BR/><BR/>I am taking the conservative route - you guys are taking the aggressive route.<BR/><BR/>If your time frame is 1 year it will be neither here nor there. If your time frame is a few weeks it could make a big difference.<BR/><BR/>Everyone is different stylistically. I prefer to buy strength when possible or extreme weakness. Right now they are mostly all below a key technical level and just bouncing from an oversold which I consider to not be strength. If I'm wrong I pay up 3-5% and it really doesn't matter in the big picture because the next leg up should be many many %. Missing the first 5% is irrelevent if there is a new move into this group.<BR/><BR/>But again, I am much more conservative than many of my readers.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-5300660953302039132008-07-25T14:18:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:18:00.000-04:00Oh... I forgot you can't go short for the fund... well it still is worth thinking about as this may be affecting the markets<BR/><BR/>I've found... you can't beat em... so join 'em... I always try to figure out what strategies the big money might be employng.rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-61217750319226285932008-07-25T14:15:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:15:00.000-04:00I have to agree with link mc and Greg, This selloff was a buying opp not a selling op if you believe in your long term thesis. I had raised cash til Monday and started buying in got my ass kicked tues wed and half of thursday, paid off today, raised cash and waiting for pull back, to redeploy, if it goes against me and the stocks run well I win anyway just less money but this was a big leg down, there a lot of head room.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Take the SLX for example, its at the March low, if it takes it out that support you are out with a small loss but the upside from here is huge.<BR/><BR/>Long coal, steel, fert, very little oil now (all since 03) 25% cash, short financials and real estate.Qhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14433765635925628922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-25380491469245292982008-07-25T14:10:00.000-04:002008-07-25T14:10:00.000-04:00Mark,<BR/><BR/>This whole CLF ANR thing is just ridiculous. <BR/><BR/>I'm very pleased that some of the commodities are selling off... there will be buying opps down the road. <BR/><BR/>Gold: if you just want some gold hedge my favorite is CEF. It's actual gold from the Bank of Canada. No stock misses or upheaval in South Africa...etc. <BR/><BR/>Hedging... it's what a lot of the big boys are doing and its what I started doing yesterday as an experiment. I bought MOS at 126 and short sold the same amount at 126 yesterday... covered the short at 117 with a stop on the long position at below support at 114. I would not be surprised if a fund that holds heavy commodity exposure for the long haul is going short now for protection and to possibly pick up a gain now and buy in when commodities come back into favor at the other end... it's a win win as long as stops or exits are used if the stocks break support/resist on one end or the other... at which time it may be right to close out the one that's on the wrong side and let the other side run...<BR/><BR/>Just some fertilizer (commodities) for thought...rosesryellow2http://www.blogger.com/profile/12471278009523940698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-38642524328407603452008-07-25T13:37:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:37:00.000-04:00Actually, I realized you were selling. I was trying to say that I was thinking about going the other way (buying). So, I was surprised to see you selling. <BR/><BR/>But, I understand now from your explanation to Greg. And, now it seems perfectly logical.Link McGinnishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14017780928019089153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-18805918585806660822008-07-25T13:31:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:31:00.000-04:00Link, I'm selling right now, not buying<BR/><BR/>Greg,<BR/>I have a pretty systematic approach for charts like this regardless of sector. When something breaks below a key moving average, and I'm stuck in I lighten up the next time it rallies to that resistance area.<BR/><BR/>If I'm "correct" then the stock breaks down and I can buy cheaper.<BR/><BR/>If I'm "wrong" I need to pay up and buy it higher. Which is a small price to pay for that insurance and not losing more money.<BR/><BR/>Mosaic has actually done this to me multiple times (the latter situation) - looks like it is breaking down only to rebound.<BR/><BR/>The problem now is I have about 25 stocks all in the same situation so I've been cutting out across many.<BR/><BR/>Frankly as I looked through charts of things in and out of my portfolio but I am interested in (watch lists) I see this same pattern repeated many times. This is actually a setup many people short from. They short at the top of the bounce with a tight stop over the resistance area. Its a very easy trade and if you are wrong you are out with a 2-3% loss. <BR/><BR/>So what I am trying to say is I don't care what the sector is. The chart is identical across many sectors. And this is the type of chart most technicians (in my opinion) love to short. <BR/><BR/>I would be happy to be wrong and buy back higher when things are safer technically. I will have a ton of choices because the same chart repeats throughout names I am interested in.<BR/><BR/>Hope that explains it. I tried to explain it in the Cleveland Cliffs entry.TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-55688154733267177342008-07-25T13:20:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:20:00.000-04:00I dont agree with this one, theres proof from reuters that all financials was mostly short covering and hedge funds creeping out of what was good, too much upside from here on Massey than downside with all the terrific nubers coming out of coal stocks that reportedGreghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08278191046264027245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-1216898575359626082008-07-25T13:15:00.000-04:002008-07-25T13:15:00.000-04:00I've been thinking about watching to see closing values for JRCC today and monday, but hoping we're in a place to buy back. Still too early?Link McGinnishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14017780928019089153noreply@blogger.com