tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post1738059986547947252..comments2008-04-15T09:52:26.232-04:00TraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-25716151792822140212008-04-15T09:52:00.000-04:002008-04-15T09:52:00.000-04:00I never understood CROCs anyways. They are an ugly, uncomfortable plastic shoe (and a pretty expensive piece of plastic at that!). Like Hoola Hoops, it was clear to me at least it was a fad that wasn't going to last :)Michaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14603027333434481007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-67626227711770840522008-04-15T09:13:00.000-04:002008-04-15T09:13:00.000-04:00rusten/jim - thanks for your comments; the blog is a lot of work and time. I am hoping over time it begins to transfer into pledged investments - but at least the readership is spiking quite quickly. One step at a time.<BR/><BR/>Brian I'll check the CZZ out - I really dont like ethanol but I suppose that is corn ethanol. I know the Brazilians use the sugar cane but if world wide riots break out there might be some political presure worldwide to stop ethanol - people dying would do that. <BR/><BR/>As for the currency - I like the RMB for the long run but since it is under control by the govt due to peg it is hard to really know where it is going - although I assume it will continue its recent trend of appreciation. But its not a free market - in which case it would be seriously higher!<BR/><BR/>semuren - I do understand foreigners come to Las Vegas but I dont think it will make up for sth shortfall - especially as those cheap Las VEgas flights will be going away due to price inflation in airlines - flying out to Vegas for $329 instead of $149 adds to the bill. p.s. MGM laying off 400 this AM.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your commentsTraderMarkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06241756200482130281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-48313112455530164622008-04-15T05:12:00.000-04:002008-04-15T05:12:00.000-04:00Greetings Mark:<BR/><BR/>on the CNY ETN mentioned above there is a an SA post worth reading here:<BR/><BR/>http://seekingalpha.com/article/69043-chinese-indian-currency-etns-launch<BR/><BR/>Here is the link for the Market Vectors info on CNY:<BR/><BR/>http://www.marketvectorsetns.com/index_ETN.cfm?cat=4192&cGroup=ETN&tkr=CNY&LN=1-03<BR/><BR/>It seems that CNY pays interest based on Fed Funds rate and not the RMB rate in China. I would see that as a bad thing. And since CNY is an ETN there is credit risk.<BR/><BR/>Renminbi (RMB) can be bought via Everbank.com but the RMB account pay NO interest and 75bsp conversion charge for deposits and withdrawals. (It also has a USD 10,000 min to open, but no min balance thereafter.) You can change USD into RMB and deposit it here in China, but there is tax on the interest and having a bank account in China is not th sort of liquid substitute for my cash position in my brokerage account that I am looking for. Wisdom Tree has some RMB based ETF/ETN in the approval process. I hope it comes out soon and is like the Rydex currency ETFs. That would be the ideal RMB vehicle.<BR/><BR/>I do not know anything about FX, but does anyone know if one can trade RMB in regualr FX accounts?<BR/><BR/>As to shorts and the original topic of this entry, HOG has been good and should only get better. Most people buying a new Harley would need credit to do so and that is hard to come by making HOG seem the perfect short.<BR/><BR/>I wonder about casinos (WYNN, LVS, MGM) for the same reason Mark pointed about about Disney. The cheap dollar might make a trip to Las Vegas something more foreigners would do and that might help keep revenues from falling off the cliff. I was thinking of shorting cruise lines (RCL, CCL) but I thought these might get off easy on the same that foreigners from Europe or Latin America might come to FL and take a cruise to take advantage of the cheap dollar. I think US restaurants and retailers (not Tiffany's or the like) might thus be better shorts.semurenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10793841471627667231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-4432153201752081672008-04-15T01:02:00.000-04:002008-04-15T01:02:00.000-04:00Hi Mark,<BR/><BR/>I wanted to bring your attention to two tickers:<BR/><BR/>CZZ<BR/>CNY<BR/><BR/>CZZ is a Brazilian sugar-based ethanol producer. CNY is a Chinese Renminbi currency ETF (not sure how that works with a pegged currency but the revaluation higher of the Yuan/Renminbi seems bound to happen).<BR/><BR/>BDCBrianhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06708811091120040283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-2773606068861301792008-04-15T00:07:00.000-04:002008-04-15T00:07:00.000-04:00Ditto. Many thanks.Jimhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04713434502019993319noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2335748440449035592.post-71839627451425148752008-04-14T22:36:00.000-04:002008-04-14T22:36:00.000-04:00Just wanted to thank you for this blog. You do a tremendous job.Rustenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12866879479201117670noreply@blogger.com