Comments on Fund My Mutual Fund: Life Partners Holdings (LPHI) Pre Announces... to ...

The thing with SRS and SKF is you cannot hold them...

2008-12-15T14:03:00.000-05:00

The thing with SRS and SKF is you cannot hold them forever, if you want to maximize profits...it took me a long time to realize. You probably knew this from the beginning.

SKF is barely up YOY for a reason. When it goes up to 300...it reshorts at 2X leverage each day, so when financials are at beaten down levels and can easily dead cat bounce 30%, SKF is in their recklessly shorting the financials at 2X leverage at those beaten down levels. A prudent person would not be shorting there, but cover. I watch it everyday, sKF, SRS and realized that you have to sell it when it spiked for that reason, kind of like if you're short Citi or something you have to cover when it gets beaten down a lot, and NOT re-short it at the lower levels with profits from previous shorts (like SKF would do or SRS) because that'll kill you.

I just say that because it sucks that such a prudent bear like you did not absolutely cash in big time on SRS, SKF, etc.

Well i comepltelyu agree on the bankruptcies. I think you have this covered with your commodity stock exposure...but I was thinking the only way we don't see massive bankruptcies and lower financials and real estate (good for SKF, SRS) is if we inflate na print, so the pair would be long SRS, and long gold or commodities.

I see you have plenty of short exposure except when we are due for a bounce, and you have plenty of commodity exposure (through stocks) That should work well to that thesis, that the kool aid sippers seem to be missing.

I may buy some RTGF call options ;)

I expect SRS to have some good runs in 2009. I do...

2008-12-15T13:27:00.000-05:00

I expect SRS to have some good runs in 2009. I don't think people understand the bankruptcies that will be coming in 2009. Debt loads are also high in this group. Look, I've owned it since Aug 2007 - I was early. It did nothing for almost a year while Kool Aid was drunk in large quantities. As you know, when people change from dreaming to reality, the stocks break down very quickly. Knowing when that happens is unknowable.

2009 estimates will prove to be way too high - analysts are just plain missing it.

Agree with you on the technical points and this entire market is about technical moves. There is no good reason to buy stocks on fundamentals so aside from "must buy because it ignores all bad news" or "charts say so and so" - one should not be buying. But since technicals seem to be 90% of all trading nowadays we all just sit and watch the same levels and wait to see what the herd does at those levels.

I don't think what is coming in 2009 is "priced in" - unlike the herd. But yes a higher price in the interim would be nice to rebuild short positions from higher levels. Right here we are in the white noise area where 50/50 chance to go either way - just waiting it out for now.

Mark, I look forward to your post.The one on colle...

2008-12-15T13:15:00.000-05:00

Mark,

I look forward to your post.

The one on colleges/schools yesterday was great.

So you think commercial real estate is next? So SRS should fly then right?

Mark, i didn't realize I get bloomberg on my tv so i watch it instead of CNBC...the kool aid to fact ratio (K/F) is lower than CNBC so it offers a better value for time investors like me ;)

but even there I just saw a bull calling for S&P 1100 by 2009 end. He says he sees earnings contract 8% more in 2009, then jump 20% into 2010. And gives it 13X operating multiple.

That is too bullish. Earnings should slide another 15% minimum in 2009 (the real damage to 2008 was all from Q3,Q4 and 2009 will have the brunt of it) and 2010 may see the secondary damage (ie: walmart's earnings dropping, etc.)

Anyway, I am not an indiscriminate buyer of all US equities as a class until S&P is 400s. no joke.

But my charts say this is noise unless we move below 860 or above 907, and the resistances after are 820 (after 860) and 940 (after 910ish), so i;m waiting to see where we'll move- either to new lows or to 1040 possibly (if we break out),

Many technicians share the same view, we're in the range, and I HOPE we break to the upside....because then there will be so many more easier shorts (ie: SKF under 100!!)

I have a similar post coming late today that I wro...

2008-12-15T12:48:00.000-05:00

I have a similar post coming late today that I wrote last week on the "RECOVERY!" look for it

I still think people don't "get" what awaits us. Either I'm way too pessimistic or head in the sand (ostrich) is the way to go; I mean it got us here - seems to be working like a charm.

Maybe the same geniuses leveraging them each day a...

2008-12-15T12:45:00.000-05:00

Maybe the same geniuses leveraging them each day are also working in our government.

the ETF czar ;)

BTW mark, read marcin's CC post...excellent...now why did you ever hold anything against him?? i think he messed up with coal but was right in the end...and he GETS it.

as opposed to kool aid kramer